On the third day of the 21st Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, there was one open session, three meetings of experts with representatives of Russian government bodies and a special session dedicated to the results of the US presidential election.
The tenth session (a recording of the broadcast is available on our website) was devoted to environmental issues, which have long been part of the political agenda. Ruslan Edelgeriev, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation and Special Presidential representative on climate issues, spoke about Russia's successes in preserving the environment, as well as the problems our country faces in the context of the green transformation. The main one, according to him, is the lack of national carbon pricing: if we do not do this, export-oriented industries that are vital for the country's economy, will suffer. Since 2021, an experiment to achieve carbon neutrality has been underway on Sakhalin, which involves emissions quotas. Edelgeriev is convinced that the Sakhalin experiment should be scaled up to cover the entire country. At the same time, Russia advocates a gradual transformation. Realising the existential nature of the crisis, we are against shock measures, the presidential aide emphasised.
Guillermo Barreto, Secretary of strategic analysis and communication at the Simón Bolívar Institute for Peace and Solidarity among Peoples (Venezuela), presented his vision of the root causes of the environmental crisis we are experiencing. He noted that over the past three hundred years, dramatic changes have been constantly accelerating, and since 1950 they have entailed unprecedented consequences for the planetary system. This situation was caused, in particular, by the colonial division of labour, dividing nations into those that supply resources and goods, and those that use and benefit from these resources, Barreto opined.
Ilgar Huseynov, Director General of Azerbaijan’s Trend News Agency, recalled that the UN COP29 climate conference opens in Baku next Monday, and the previous one was held in Dubai. This shows that even countries with rich oil and gas potential can contribute to sustainable development, he noted. The leitmotif of Azerbaijan's presidency of COP29 is cooperation and the development of mechanisms for economic support among countries engaged in the green transition processes. Developed Western countries are not eager to finance climate projects in developing countries, but it is time for them to show more responsibility in this matter, Huseynov emphasised.
According to Igor Makarov, Head of the School of World Economy and Head of the Laboratory for Climate Change Economics at HSE University, there is increasing talk not just about a "green" transition, but about a fair transition. Emissions need to be reduced where it is cheapest to do so - in developing countries. Financial flows should not circulate between developed countries, but should be directed towards sustainable development projects in developing countries. So far, there are no mechanisms guiding the flow of money from developed to developing countries through carbon pricing, the expert noted.
It is fairer to calculate emissions not by production, but by consumption, Makarov said. The main flows of carbon-intensive products go to developed countries, so calculating emissions using consumption will render statements about the carbon neutrality of individual countries meaningless. Moreover, despite all the measures being taken, emissions are growing and reached a record level in 2023.
Rasigan Maharajh, Chief Director of the Institute for Economic Research on Innovation at the Tshwane University of Technology (South Africa), continued the theme raised by his Venezuelan colleague. According to him, our socially-defined forms of organisation, structures and systems lag behind collective progress, and in the 21st century imperialism and colonialism have been reborn in a new institutional form.
Maharajh called for liberation from the mental slavery that allows the continuation of unfair development that benefits a minority of the world's population, while the majority pays the costs and subsidises its own underdevelopment through continued unequal exchange.
Following the session on the environment, a meeting was held between the participants of the Annual Meeting and Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, who oversees the government's economic dealings, electric power and the fuel and energy sector, as well as issues of state climate policy. During a frank conversation with experts, the issues of economic growth, the impact of sanctions on the country's economy, promising opportunities for Russian energy exports and many other topics were touched upon.
The next high-ranking guest who spoke with the meeting’s participants was Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Among other things, they discussed the regionalisation of world politics and economics caused by the fragmentation of the world space as a result of the West's actions, the reform of existing international institutions and the creation of alternative ones, as well as prospects for cooperation in the Russia-India-China triangle.
The series of meetings of Valdai Club experts with representatives of Russian government bodies was concluded with a conversation with Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office. The BRICS countries will play a special role in the development of the global economy, he noted. They account for the majority of the world's resources (energy, metals, food). After the 2008-2010 crisis, a new economic cycle began, during which the share of the BRICS countries in the global economy exceeded that of the G7. Oreshkin spoke about the growth drivers of the global economy in the coming decades (these will be countries with high birth rates, which will experience a sharp increase in urbanisation) and the prospects that this will open up for the economy of Russia, after which he answered questions from experts.
The last session of the third day, dedicated to the US elections, was an open discussion moderated by Andrey Sushentsov, programme director of the Valdai Discussion Club. The experts discussed the reasons why Donald Trump's victory became possible despite the mobilisation of all possible resources by the Democratic Party. According to one expert, two economies have been competing for cash flow in the US for about thirty years: a national one, underinvested all these years, and the globalist one - financial, technological and media groups connected to the US only by passport. The development model promoted by the globalists caused resistance from within, and Trump's victory marked the victory of the national economy.
At the same time, it was noted that the emphasis on developing the national economy was made under Obama, and important steps towards reindustrialisation were taken under Biden. Over the past four years, US economic growth totalled 10% versus 3% in the EU, and inflation and unemployment remain low. The US receives cheap labour from Latin America and finances from Europe, and today, according to one expert, acts both like Switzerland did a hundred years ago and like a modern developing country. In many ways, Trump will continue the economic policies of his predecessors from the opposite camp, and his achievement is that he managed to win the votes of the working class (including blacks and Latin Americans), who saw in him a chance to improve their economic situation.
In the international sphere, the main focus for the Trump administration will be pressure on China. According to Chinese experts, their country treats this in a businesslike manner and has no doubt that it will withstand this pressure. Trump will also try to tear Russia away from China, where, according to Russian experts, he will not succeed. As one of the participants in the meeting said, the task of the global majority is to ensure that the US moves away from the position of global hegemon to the role of a normal great power. This will require strict containment and increase the cost of residual American expansion, the expert noted. But all this is for the good of the world – and, ultimately, for the US itself.
