Valdai Club

The events of recent years, and especially this year have taken India out of its comfort zone, writes Valdai Club expert Alexey Kupriyanov. India felt quite comfortable in the previous reality; the new one puts it before a large number of challenges, which the Indian leadership has so far successfully overcome, once again demonstrating an exceptional ability not to quarrel with anyone more than necessary and to extract maximum profit from the conflicts between other great powers.

Exactly ten years ago, in 2012, the well-known American journalist Robert Kaplan wrote in his book,  that while the great powers,  the United States and China, oppose each other, the geopolitical situation in Eurasia in the 21st century will be largely determined by which direction India will swing

The European Union and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are formally similar interstate organisations according to the institutional theory of international relations. However, in reality they are antagonists, and their antagonism is conceptual — the EU and BRICS embody the old and the new in international politics and the methods of interstate institutional cooperation. Now that legitimate grounds have arisen to question the future of institutional forms of interstate cooperation in principle, the fates of the EU and BRICS are of equal interest for understanding the foundations on which these states can preserve such major achievements of the 20th century.

Organisations don’t exist on their own; they consist of participants, and their success or failure is determined by the extent to which the goals of these participants coincide, to what extent they are ready to yield, and how they build interaction with each other, writes Valdai Club expert Alexei Kupriyanov. The article is published as part of the Valdai Club’s Think Tank project, continuing the collaboration between Valdai and Observer Research Foundation (New Delhi).

Neither India nor Russia are interested in the US-China confrontation: the winner would be too strong, and a war between the two nuclear powers is likely to escalate into a conflict involving the use of nuclear weapons, the escalation of which could get out of control, writes Valdai Club expert Alexei Kupriyanov.

In the event of a real withdrawal of American troops, compliance with the terms of the peace agreement will remain entirely on the Taliban's own head: it is obvious that there will not be another American intervention.

The world is on the threshold of a new Cold War. The new war will be waged between the United States and China. Moscow and New Delhi may respond by forming an unofficial, non-military alliance, which could be termed the Peaceful Development Movement. The aim of forging such a space of co-development would be to continue positive globalization while also searching for fairer alternatives to the existing world order.

Although at first glance this step of India has led to escalation, it may well lead to a relaxation of the situation in Kashmir. The problem is that the situation in Jammu and Kashmir was in limbo for a very long time and under the current conditions it is practically unsolvable.

The victory of Modi will benefit Russia. It means preserving the format of a dialogue of strong leaders, which is comfortable for both countries, with a more strongly pronounced policy of India towards strategic autonomy. Moreover, Narendra Modi, at least in the early years of his leadership, seems to be focusing on confidence building with China.

The terrorirst attacks will increase tension in the already-difficult domestic political situation in Sri Lanka: in December 2019 presidential elections are set to be held in the country. The Islamic factor in the past constantly played an important role in the election campaign, and there is no doubt that the Muslim card will be played this time - the only question is what political forces will use it more effectively.