Valdai Club

Back in October 2017, which may seem today a bygone era, a group of Valdai Club experts teamed up with a group of researchers to release a report titled A Look into the Future: Scenarios for Asia and Russia in Asia in the Next 20 Years.

Both in Europe and in East Asia, international crises periodically flare up, fraught with the threat of growing from the regional to the global level. Conflicts in international relations in East Asia manifest themselves no less, if not more, than in Europe. However, they are based on slightly different reasons than in the Occidental world, writes Valdai Club expert Dmitry Streltsov.

Abe's unprecedentedly long rule is an upshot of the mediacracy epoch that makes the domestic political positions of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party increasingly dependent on the popularity of its leader.

The summer of 2019 marks the 80th anniversary of the armed conflict on the Khalkhin Gol River, which  demonstrated the superiority of the Soviet and Mongolian military power. In the context of this anniversary, the Valdai Discussion Club presents the papers by two renowned Russian orientalists.

For Japan, the dialogue with Russia in the two-plus-two format is a tool to carry out its goal of achieving greater independence in its foreign policy and moving away from complete subordination to the United States on all issues affecting its national security.

The visit did nothing to dispel Japan’s wariness toward an unpredictable Trump who tends to place US interests above those of its allies. If history is any guide, Japanese leaders usually find it easier to deal with Republicans than Democrats in the White House.

The signing of a peace treaty and the further transfer of the islands to Japan is undoubtedly an extremely painful step for Moscow, which definitely will not find much public support and will not add to the popularity of the Russian President. Yet, something else is perfectly clear: the full normalization of political relations with Japan would significantly enhance Russia’s security and the stability of its borders.

Both China and Japan would benefit immensely from even minor, symbolic progress in the political dialogue, which has long been held back by a territorial dispute and divergent approaches to their historical past. The Japanese prime minister’s visit was used as just such an opportunity. It is not accidental that Abe’s visit to Beijing was timed to coincide with the 40th anniversary of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship between China and Japan of August 1978.

On September 20, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe was reelected for the third time in a row as President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has a majority of seats in both chambers of Parliament. This enabled him to secure his premiership until September 2021, extending his term in office to 10 years and making him the longest serving prime minister in the entire history of Japan. After a long period of political instability, when the annual change of Cabinet with its revolving door Prime Ministers made one’s head spin, the era of Abe’s premiership has become the Golden Age in Japanese politics.

This week the European Union leaders took part in two Asian summits in a row: on July 16 with China and on July 17 with Japan. In Tokyo a free trade agreement was signed between the EU and Japan, and China reached an agreement with the EU on WTO reform. Why Europe turned back from the US to the Asian region and what other changes are expected, Dmitry Streltsov, head of the Department of Oriental Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, leading researcher of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, discussed in an interview with www.valdaiclub.com.