Valdai Club

Prime Minister Abe has finished his official visit to China. Both governments underlined historical success of the visit by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Beijing after seven years’ interval. Although the intensifying trade conflict, or the so-called “trade war” between the US and China is impressive, the fact that the second and the third largest economies met officially at this timing deserves serious attention in the midst of dynamic changes in Asian politics.

Abe’s commitment to Russia is demonstrated by his reappointment of Hiroshige Seko as Minister on Russian affairs, along with Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). In the Japanese cabinet history, such special minister on a particular country had never been instituted before.

Security dialogue between Tokyo and Moscow is necessary not only for bilateral relations which expect new horizons, but also significant in the context of regional and perhaps global balances.

Singapore Declaration by the US President Trump and DPRK Chairperson Kim Jong-un was signed on 12th June, aiming to make the Korean peninsula ‘secure’ and ‘denuclearized’. The Korean denuclearization process is also vital for the peace and security not only in North East Asia but also for global politics. It remains to be seen whether both leaders can go further to their ultimate goal or not.

The political scene in Northeast Asia is changing drastically following the Pyeongchang Olympic Games. Several high-level meetings are being held on the Korean denuclearization issue. Kim Jong-un visited Beijing clandestinely by train to see Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 28. Among others, the ROK-DPRK summit meeting at Panmunjeom by the ROK President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un on April 27th made a joint declaration aimed at “perfect denuclearization of Korean Peninsula.”

The years 2018-2020 may become the turning point for Northeast Asia, where Russia and Japan will play no less important and cooperative role. Thus mutual interests can surpass the old antagonism of the two countries as “distant neighbors,” paving the way to becoming “benign neighbors.”

2017 marked one hundred years' anniversary of bipolarity of global politics. Russian revolution, as well as the Wilsonian ‘democratic’ involvement in global affairs took place a century ago. However, communism failed in 1991, whilst US project of democratic promotion seemed to prevail globally after that.

Japanese politics is now in flux. By his sudden dissolution of Diet by Premier Minister Shinzo Abe this September, political landscape is shifting quite rapidly. Abe originally wanted to utilize unpreparedness of oppositionist parties for election to escape his domestic situation, but his plan was ill founded and resulting in unintended path.

This April summit proved that positivist view was getting momentum. Both leaders reaffirmed that the peace treaty was necessary, and agreed to conclude it within their own leadership and tenure. Trust among leaders, business circles and people of both countries is a necessary prerequisite for the solution of territorial issue.

History knows precedent cases, such as Norwegian Spitzbergen (Svalbard) where both Russians and Norwegians lived together under the international framework. This experience made them easy to delimit or demarcate the national border in 2010. The Joint Economic Activities under this arrangement in the Northern Territories, if it is implemented, will enhance the level of mutual interaction among peoples, municipalities, regions and interested companies, and would enhance trust among each other.