Valdai Club

Back in October 2017, which may seem today a bygone era, a group of Valdai Club experts teamed up with a group of researchers to release a report titled A Look into the Future: Scenarios for Asia and Russia in Asia in the Next 20 Years.

For two decades, the US-China conflict has been simmering, under a shell of diversified and productive cooperation, as if it insured both parties against serious troubles. Now, however, we see how this shell is bursting at the seams and torn under the pressure of conflict factors that have reached a critical mass, writes Valdai Club expert Viktor Sumsky.

Why not come up with a thesis about a New Union, forged in response to the existential challenges that Russia, China and the world as a whole are encountering at the beginning of the 21st century?

While the Russian media were agonizing over what they viewed as the seminal question of whether the Russian and US presidents would meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Meeting in Da Nang, Donald Trump offered one surprise after another for those used to the polished rhetoric at events of this kind. He kept it coming several days later in Manila which hosted several summit events for members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its dialogue partners.

The threat posed by ISIS not only to the Philippines, but to the whole region, should not be underestimated. The recent seizure of the southern Philippine city of Marawi by militants aligned with the Islamic State, alarmed Malaysia and Indonesia, whose poorly defended borders with the Philippines are very vulnerable to external penetration.

Duterte's visit is a necessary prelude to cooperation in the field of defense. It is not the first time the Filipinos wish to buy Russian weapons. The Filipinos got from the former colonial power mostly morally obsolete and worn-out weapons. Against this background they showed interest to the less expensive but modern and reliable production of the Russian military-industrial complex.

The final statement of the Manila summit is not an indication that it has turned a blind eye to the problems of the South China Sea. On the contrary, it includes a large section that reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace, stability, security and freedom of navigation and over-flight in and above the South China Sea.

Last week, the first ever informal meeting between the Russian defence minister and his colleagues from the ten ASEAN nations took place in Moscow. Viktor Sumsky, Director of the ASEAN Center at MGIMO University told valdaiclub.com in an interview why this meeting was special for both sides.