Valdai Club

Russia’s exclusive influence in the region is being challenged by both external actors and regional states. This does not mean that Russia is exiting the South Caucasus, but its room for manoeuvre has significantly narrowed. The key for Russia is to manage the situation wisely, moving away from inertial thinking. Instead, Moscow should promote a pragmatic vision of a peaceful and stable neighbourhood, free from geopolitical illusions, Sergey Markedonov writes.

It is extremely important for Moscow to navigate between Scylla and Charybdis, maintaining a balance in relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as with Turkey and Iran, and with partners in the OSCE Minsk Group. There is no rational need to create additional tensions with the West over Karabakh until (and if) the United States and its allies begin to revise the currently fragile consensus with Russia, Valdai Club expert Sergey Markedonov writes.

This latest round in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has brought Russia’s role in a settlement into focus and revealed the additional risks, not from Western pressure, which has become traditional, but from the growing ambitions of various regional players and non-government actors.

Has the July escalation brought about any significant changes? It may be too soon to tell. At the same time, it is clear that the transition from military escalation to a new diplomatic round and vice versa, known as the Nagorno-Karabakh pendulum, has been delayed this time. After the four-day war, the negotiating process resumed almost at the same time as the ceasefire agreement was reached. This time, however, there could be other factors at play, writes Sergey Markedonov, Leading Researcher of the Euro-Atlantic Security Centre at MGIMO University

Disagreements may deepen on Ukraine and the Crimea, as well as on the problems in the South Caucasus.

Full armed clashes in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone began on April 2. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry declared that there had been shelling from Armenia, while the Armenian Defense Ministry reported offensive operations by Azerbaijan. These operations in the disputed area are generally believed to be the heaviest since the 1994 ceasefire. Valdai’s experts do not rule out that current events could escalate into a full-scale, protracted conflict.