Valdai Club

Italy has been firmly in the Western orbit for decades and its aspiration to revive its economy using European funds can only strengthen this alignment. The reason is that the EU itself has no choice with respect to the Atlantic link with the United States, certainly not in the near future and not before Germany really tries to detach from the United States, writes Valdai Club expert Orietta Moscatelli.

In the unprecedented duel between Italy and the EU Commission, each side has its own goals and it is hard to imagine when it will stop. Indeed, if one follows the daily blows between Brussels and Rome, the clash seems to be without any possible solution. Fortunately for Italy, and probably also for Europe, things are not exactly like that. Not yet.

On June 24, 2018, the informal EU summit had its first real showdown on the migrant crisis, and it is only the beginning. The European club seriously risks implosion on how to manage the epochal exodus of millions of people from Africa and the Middle East.

The Italians did not simply reject Matteo Renzi’s center-left Democratic Party, which is the real loser and collapsed below 20%, cashing the worst result ever. They not only invoked the strong hand against immigration by voting for the League, which surpassed Silvio Berlusconi’s center-rightists.

It has been a week since the referendum on autonomy in the Italian regions of Veneto and Lombardy regions took place. The central government in Rome is listening and watching carefully. The moment is complicated for internal politics: the general elections are looming in a few months and, of course, it is not possible not to take into account the opinion of the sixteen-million population of these two regions, which produce one third of Italy’s GDP.

Relations with Russia for years paid the price of the European sanction policy that Italy is accepting with increased malevolence, but it continues to respect it in the name of the unity of the EU's intentions. Here is a tooth and nail defense policy of the eastern European countries which, with the Ukrainian crisis, were able to strengthen the eastward shift in the center of gravity of the European foreign policy. This is a penalizing move for Italy, which has the natural center of its national interests in the Mediterranean, starting from Libya.

The US is back to the Middle East, after the apparent disinterest of President Donald Trump, and will stand on the side of "Sunni" platform, recognizing at the same time that Moscow is a key player in determining the future of Syria (and Assad).

The result in political terms is, at the moment, a “non result”. The country has not seen the financial disaster especially feared in Europe in case of a ‘no victory’ and the new government is a photocopy of the previous one. But now comes the difficult part, regardless of the referendum outcome. In times of Brexit, of huge migrations, of growing uncertainty feelings and absence of solid economic recipes for the future, change could be soon unavoidable in Italy, too. And it could be hard, really hard changes.

The EU has found itself unable to face a biblical immigration emergency, and is divided over what can be done to stop the Mediterranean from becoming a mass grave for desperate people fleeing war and poverty.

Italy is one of the countries that wants to stay out of the "European choir", that is why the opinions in Europe have divided in the last months.