Valdai Club

The diplomatic recovery of 2023 and regional multipolarity without proper economic (projects already exist) and institutional consolidation of normalization agreements have the risk of a rollback to armed confrontation. A commitment to inclusive regional development and equality, rather than individual big players, could be the basis of a new regional order, writes Ruslan Mamedov, Senior Research Fellow, Center for the Arab and Islamic Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

For the West, any conversation about reconstruction begins with a political settlement, while the topic of humanitarian aid is strictly politicised. But someone should already raise the question of what the sanctions policy has achieved in recent years, other than the deterioration of the humanitarian situation of the Syrian population, writes Valdai Club expert Ruslan Mamedov.

Bashar al-Assad sent a message to the whole world that he is ready for a new stage. The world is no longer what it was a decade ago. At the regional level, the Arabs are thinking about accepting the existing reality, but at the global level, the Syria issue is not a priority, writes Valdai Club expert Ruslan Mamedov.

In many regions of the world, there are regional structures whose goal is integration and interaction. In the Arab world, all the projects that have been offered since the 20th century fell apart before being realised, writes Ruslan Mamedov, Project Manager for Middle East and North Africa at the Russian International Affairs Council.

On February 14, the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran will meet in Sochi to discuss Syria and hold separate bilateral meetings. Recently, new developments have emerged that could prove dangerous if each state pursues its own hidden agenda. The three states depend on the Astana format for settling the Syrian issue.

Russia has to take a restrained position on the issue of Idlib so that the developments in Syria evolve in line with its interests. On this, Turkey can be helpful, if it proposes solutions on the settlement of the situation in the eastern part of Syria for the sake of preserving the country’s territorial integrity.

The past two weeks have seen developments that will determine the further course of the Afghan conflict. There was fierce fighting between Afghanistan’s armed units and the Taliban, particularly for the town of Ghazni southwest of Kabul. The approaching Eid al-Adha (Kurban Bairam) Festival spurred renewed attempts to achieve a truce, but to no avail. In the meantime, Pakistan got a new prime minister, whom his enemies have dubbed Imran “Taliban” Khan.

The post-ISIS period in Syria has never meant the beginning of a post-conflict stage. On the Syrian theatre, there are still problems related to the need for political transformation and return of the refugees, as well as overthrowing separate ISIS and former Jabhat al-Nusrah terrorist entities.