Valdai Club

Prospectively, the Taliban unity will hinge on whether or not it wants to integrate into a peaceful political process, writes Andrey Kazantsev, Director of the Analytical Center of the MGIMO University’s Institute for International Studies. Paradoxically, it will be of more use for its internal unity if the Taliban just attempts to seize power under the pretext of imposing peace (which means continuing the civil war in a different guise).

During US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s trip to Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Uzbekistan, a diverse number of issues should be resolved regarding foreign policy, as well as domestic political calculations and the plans of the American administration. Pompeo's trip to the former Soviet Union began on January 30th and should conclude on February 3rd.

The withdrawal of American troops may be hampered by two factors, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Kazantsev. First, there is the understanding that this could “blow up” the regional security situation and lead to a new round of uncontrolled destabilisation in Eurasia and, second, the withdrawal will damage the reputation of the US Army (why did it fight without results, leaving everything to the mercy of fate?) Therefore, if a decision on the withdrawal is made in some near future, very serious mutual accusations will follow. However, Washington has already become accustomed to them during the period of Trump's presidency.

In general, under any scenarios, the war in Afghanistan will continue but without US participation if the Americans leave it altogether. Indicatively, fairly radical forces will win this war.

Nowadays, the rise of threats to security coming from terrorism and religious extremism is spreading all over the world.