Valdai Club

There are two quick and cynical responses to what has become over the past decade an almost eternal question: how can relations between the UK and Russia be, if not improved, then at least stabilised. The first would be to observe that relations have, in fact, been quite stable for most of that time - stable at a rock-bottom setting of very bad, verging on non-existent. The second would be to suggest that maybe both sides like it that way, or at least that it suits their interests.

Just as Boris Johnson’s election victory had seemed to bring welcome clarity, Coronavirus swept into muddy the waters again. But it also illustrated the risks for the UK of being a medium-sized country alone, writes Valdai Club expert Mary Dejevsky. The EU’s collective response to the virus may have left much to be desired, though there has been more medical and economic cooperation than it often appeared. But the response of the US hardly offered any attractive alternative model.

The UK, like most of its immediate European neighbours, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, is at a standstill in most aspects of normal life. Parliament is about to pass emergency legislation that will restrict civil liberties more than at any time since the Second World War - to almost no objection from Opposition MPs or the population at large.

For all the frost, however, it should not necesarily be concluded that there is no hope at all of any change. As demonstrated by his handling of the Brexit negotiations and how he set about “selling” his deal to his Conservative colleagues, Boris Johnson is a master of saying one thing with great conviction to please a crucial constituency, then proceeding to do something a little - or even a lot - different.

Few can have imagined that what might be called London’s transatlantic dilemma would pose itself so sharply so soon - in fact even before the UK had formally left the EU. Nor that it would take so many forms.

There appears to be some discussion in government circles about how far policy should be reorientated away from Europe and towards the rest of the world. Topics include how far the potential for increased trade should outweigh other considerations, whether naval power should be boosted in view of the rise of China, and how far the Commonwealth and international organisations should be seen as forums for the UK to exploit existing connections.

Referendums do not fit well with the UK’s Parliamentary system, at least not when the result goes against government policy and the will of the majority in Parliament.

Whether the process will go further, to the point where the UK perhaps develops a wider spread of smaller parties on German lines, is likely to depend on two factors: how strong traditional loyalties to Labour and the Conservatives remain, and whether - as a longer-term consequence of the current parliamentary stalemate - the UK might one day switch to a proportional electoral system.

With such unpredictable characters as Boris Johnson and Donald Trump attending, drama within the meeting halls cannot be ruled out. In the event that all passes off quietly and according to plan, it will not only be President Macron who will sigh with relief.

It would be fair to say that Boris Johnson divides opinion – at home, in the UK, that is. People tend to be adamantly for or against him becoming Prime Minister.