Valdai Club

The difference in approaches of Russia and the EU to the reconstruction of Syria is influenced by the current state of Russian-American relations, although there is a growing understanding in the European Union that the geopolitical interests of European states should not always coincide with the interests of their unpredictable Euro-Atlantic ally, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Aksenyonok.

The temporary disappearance of Syria from front page news and new Russia-Turkey agreements on a ceasefire in Idlib are far from comforting. This is merely a tactical pause that should give serious food for thought on Syria’s future in the increasingly unpredictable and rapidly changing world.

The region remains a source of violence and terrorism, dramatic national upheavals, humanitarian catastrophes on a global scale, and waves of migration. The price of revolutions, the resultant devastation and foreign interference proved too high and relapses cannot be ruled out.

On October 26, a delegation of the Syrian High Negotiations Committee headed by Nasr al-Hariri arrived in Moscow and was received at the Russian Foreign Ministry, where it met with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and held extensive consultations with Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov on the current situation in Syria.

On May 8, 2018, Donald Trump announced the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal. Simultaneously the Iran-Israel conflict began to escalate: on May 10, Israel conducted a missile strikes against "Iranian military targets" in Syria - allegedly in response to a similar act of aggression against it. Alexander Aksenyonok, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary and Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats, spoke in an interview with www.valdaiclub.com about how the US decision on the JCPOA influenced the regional policy and the escalation of the conflict.

A provisional constitution might have its benefits, but it can also distort the legal framework in the absence of stability guarantees. What is the balance that could help Syria resume stable development based on a new social contract between the government and society?

It must be stated right from the outset that the outgoing year has failed to bring this long-suffering region either any perceptible change for the better or a consummation of aspirations that provided a powerful impetus to the million-strong protests in the Arab world seven years ago. The price of revolutions, failed hopes as well as outside interference proved too high. The Middle East remains a source of violence, terrorism and destructive processes sending shockwaves far beyond its borders.

Time will show whether a broad dialogue is possible between the US and Russia about Syria’s political future after the ISIS defeat and how to bring the Syrians themselves to real national reconciliation based on reasonable compromises. The “no winners – no losers” formula is most consistent with Arab historical traditions and mentality.

Military conflicts, terrorism, lack of natural resources, unemployment, disparity – all these are but a fraction of problems, which persist in the Middle East.  Political rivalry at regional level as well as global actors’ interference lead to increasing tensions. Why does the region turn out to be so vulnerable to the conflict?

We have a situation in which Russia, the United States and regional players understand that they need to adjust their approaches.