Valdai Club

Natalia Orlova

Sergei Oznobishchev

Miguel Otero-Iglesias

Andrei Ostrovsky

Daria Osinina

Djoomart Otorbaev

Sinan Oğan

Krissmonne Olwagen

Stephen O’Sullivan

Olga Oliker

USA

Director, European Security, International Crisis Group.

Materials

No Reason to Get Rid of the Open Skies Treaty

On the heels of the demise of the INF treaty this August, reports that the United States is poised to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty, thus dooming it as well, are worrying. This pact has made it possible for its 34 member states to better assess one another’s military capacity and intentions. Without it, misperception and distrust will increase.

Americans in Afghanistan: Ignoring Lessons of the Soviet Intervention

Eighteen years after the U.S. went to war, the parallels with Russia’s experience seem obvious. Not least of them is the difficulty of leaving Afghanistan. Donald Trump promises American troops will be gone by November of 2020. Barack Obama made similar promises in 2014 and 2016. Similarly, Mikhail Gorbachev decided it was time to get out in 1986, but Soviet forces only left in 1989.

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty is on its deathbed. Some celebrate its increasingly likely demise, dismissing the decades-old treaty as antiquated and irrelevant to today’s realities. However, the mode of the INF treaty’s death bodes ill for the future of arms control, U.S.-Russian relations, and global security.