Given Trump’s unipolar approach, India and Russia have to be the torchbearers of multipolarity. While they continue to navigate their ties with the US on an individual level, it is necessary to ensure that this does not affect Indo-Russian bilateral ties, writes Pravesh Kumar Gupta.
Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 was met with a mix of apprehension and excitement in global geopolitics. On the one hand, it was anticipated that he would bring positive changes to the crumbling world order, while, at the same time, it was projected that his erratic behaviour might further undermine it. To a certain extent, the second assumption is becoming true as we assess the first year of Trump 2.0. During his election campaign, the claims that he would end all conflicts and make America Great Again (MAGA) seem, so far, unfulfilled. He has not been able to end the Ukraine conflict, and his MAGA campaign is meeting with domestic resistance.
Trump’s foreign policy has been centred on unilateralism as its core principle. Reduced emphasis on values and deal-making over ideology has been the core feature of Trump 2.0. He has effectively managed rivalries with adversaries and pressured allies, as he is more comfortable engaging in one-on-one exchanges. His second term has unintentionally expanded strategic space for middle powers like India while normalising Russia’s role as a negotiable actor rather than a permanent adversary. India-US relations have also seen ups and downs under Trump’s second term.
Tariffs were used by the Trump administration as a tool of coercion to pressure Delhi to stop its purchases of discounted Russian oil. The Trump administration condemned this procurement, calling it India’s direct funding of the Ukrainian war. The US levied a 25% penalty tariff on Indian exports. However, in reality, New Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil has helped maintain stability in the global energy market. Despite the US pressure, India-Russia relations have remained strategic and robust. Amidst global geopolitical uncertainty, bilateral relations received a boost with President Putin’s visit to India in December 2025.
The main outcome of this visit was the announcement of an economic cooperation programme that will last until 2030. This is a timely initiative aimed at making Indo-Russian bilateral relations more balanced, diversified, and sustainable. This includes improving market access for Indian products to address the current trade imbalance, where bilateral trade has surged from about $10 billion in 2022 to nearly $69 billion in 2025, largely driven by India’s imports of discounted Russian oil (which now accounts for around 35% of India’s total oil imports). Notably, the Russian president assured India of ‘uninterrupted fuel supplies’, defying US tariffs and sanctions and underscoring Russia’s reliability as an energy partner. This visit also made the West a little more uncomfortable, as the optics were high, such as when PM Modi received President Putin at the airport, and the two leaders travelled in the same car. Though it was a regular leaders’ summit between India and Russia, it has become more significant for global observers because it took place at a time when serious churn is underway in global geopolitics, credited to Trump.
Recently concluded trade agreements between India and the EU, as well as those between India and the US, are seen to affect India’s economic relationship with Russia. India is expected to cease its purchases of Russian oil. Additionally, as Trump claimed, New Delhi has already halted its oil imports from Russia. In this scenario, it is high time that India and Russia diversify their trade baskets as soon as possible. The discussion to diversify at almost every level has been ongoing recently, and it’s the right time to implement it. The strategic aspect of India-Russian relations will always remain unchanged, as it has endured significant geopolitical turbulence and remained unaffected.
During Trump’s presidency, US-Russia relations were characterised by a paradox of sanctions and dialogue. In order to pressure Russia, fresh sanctions were imposed. At the same time, close cooperation between the US and Russia on peace negotiations in Ukraine is also evident. As mentioned above, Trump recalibrated Washington’s Russia policy. It was a deviation from the previous administration, which considered Russia a strategic rival. In contrast, Trump is trying to manage relations with Moscow. The National Security Strategy 2025 focuses on pursuing ‘strategic stability’ and limited cooperation with Russia. This updated policy, which largely aligns with Moscow’s worldview, aims to end the war in Ukraine through negotiations and re-evaluates Russia’s role in the global order.
Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy also reflects a marked departure from the value-driven and alliance-centric approach of previous administrations. It is predominantly visible in the US treatment of Europe. Although the document reiterates the importance of transatlantic ties, it simultaneously signals Washington’s growing impatience with European strategic dependency and limited burden-sharing. The NSS implicitly criticises Europe’s inability to independently manage its security challenges, especially in the context of Ukraine. It also underscores the need for US resources to be prioritised for domestic renewal and great-power competition elsewhere. This recalibration has diluted the moral absolutism that earlier framed Russia as an existential and permanent adversary. It has also led to a shift in the US approach towards Russia to a more transactional, interest-based framework focused on risk management and strategic stability.
This shift has had cascading effects beyond the Atlantic, reshaping how major non-Western powers interpret Washington’s strategic priorities. For India, this shift has significant implications. Trump’s pragmatic engagement with Moscow, despite continued sanctions, indirectly validates New Delhi’s long-standing position that dialogue and engagement are more effective than isolation. The waning of Western consensus and the reduced emphasis on ideological alignment have expanded India’s diplomatic room to manoeuvre, allowing it to pursue issue-based partnerships without being drawn into rigid bloc politics. India’s continued engagement with Russia, whether in energy, defence, or multilateral platforms, thus appears less anomalous and more reflective of an emerging global norm shaped by strategic realism rather than moral absolutes.
Despite the ongoing global geopolitical shifts, which have been aggravated by Trump’s unpredictability, India-Russia relations have remained resilient. This resilience stems from the fact that both countries are guided by civilisational values and share a worldview that promotes a just and fair order based on multipolarity. While India has exercised its strategic autonomy well by not isolating Russia, Moscow has remained India’s most trusted partner. The mutual understandings regarding their respective and independent engagements with the world have created a strategic space for both countries to manoeuvre.
There will be more challenges thrown at Indo-Russian relations in the future. Both countries must continue engagement at all levels to make meaningful progress in areas of mutual interest. This includes strengthening and diversifying economic ties, science and technology cooperation, enhancing military cooperation (with a focus on co-production), and collaborating on regional security issues. Additionally, addressing global geopolitical shifts and technological advancements will be crucial.
Given Trump’s unipolar approach, India and Russia have to be the torchbearers of multipolarity. While they continue to navigate their ties with the US on an individual level, it is necessary to ensure that this does not affect Indo-Russian bilateral ties. They can do so by fostering communication and strategic partnerships. Maintaining a high level of trust and consideration for each other’s sensitivities can help India and Russia navigate challenges together and ensure a stable and productive relationship moving forward.
