The Trend of World Politics for the 2020s

The past decade has been the most difficult in the history of the European Union. The 1920s could become even more complicated and dangerous. We may be at the beginning of the end of the West as we know it. A new generation of politicians and thinkers must be brought in to put Europe back on the right path of stability and growth; the present one is blinded by the triumphalism of the past 30 years and is incapable of making wise decisions. The EU is overburdened with serious problems, none of which can be solved in the medium term and each weighs so heavily that the EU could be crushed by any of these problems.

Take Brexit, which the rest of the EU countries were still trying to prevent. The US, on the other hand, supported Brexit, while Washington is planning a free trade area with the UK after Brexit. There is probably also a special military alliance between Washington and London - these two states will try together to make world politics. Germany and France are therefore developing their own agenda, and cannot be suppressed by the Anglo-Saxons. The West then splits.

Suzerain-Vassals Relations: How Trump Shapes His European Policy
Andrei Korobkov
Last week, Donald Trump demonstrated the stark contrast between the way he talks with Vladimir Putin who, albeit an opponent, is still the head of a great power, and the way he talks with European leaders, seen as vassals. At a meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker on July 25, the US president called a spade a spade once again and sent Europe a clear message that the western alliance is not a union of equals anymore. No matter how the trade war ends for Europe, the rules of the game have changed, said Andrei Korobkov, Professor of political science at the Middle Tennessee State University, in an interview with valdaiclub.com.
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The US is Europe's biggest problem. The Americans are in a geopolitical battle with their rivals Russia and China, and the Western allies are being absolutely obeyed. The EU, the Americans demand, should no longer obtain energy from Russia and no longer buy technology from China. The US wants Moscow and Beijing to stop making money in the West for their military build-up. The US thought of democratizing Russia and China; After the attempt failed 20 years ago, Washington is seeking to contain its rivals. Presumably, Europeans will buckle because they are totally dependent on the US market economically. In doing so, the West is pushing Russia further into the arms of China. The new Eurasia is emerging - and the West will later deeply regret not having partnered with it. Instead of seeking to join forces, the EU wants to compete with both countries - in the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa...
American King Kong and the Law of the Jungle
Andrey Kortunov
Why is Russia, with its annual military spending of $50-60 billion considered as America’s most dangerous rival in the 2020 budget? Why is China perceived as a strategic challenge, despite spending only a third what the United States does on its defence? And why is the same President Trump stubbornly twisting the arms of his NATO allies, demanding more and more allocations to maintain the security of the West? Is the budget of $738 billion not enough?
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The next problem is the ageing of European societies, which can break the overburdened social systems. The pension problem has been a problem for the EU states for decades, and in the 2020s it could have dramatic consequences if the baby boom generation retires. Another problem is the divergence of the euro zone. The north of Europe is getting richer - the south is getting poorer. There will be no single financial area with a budget, but the populations of Northern and Eastern Europe will rebel against it.
A Europe of Homelands and New European Sclerosis
Timofei Bordachev
Modern Europe is rapidly destroying its self-created image of a political association where major issues are resolved not through backroom deals but through open democratic procedures. After the May elections to the European Parliament, EU leaders started selecting nominees for the top EU positions. Obviously, nobody expected them to be guided by the interests of the community rather than their personal or national preferences. However, the ultimate prevalence of the personal ambitions of Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and others stunned even the most cynical observers. As a result of these elections, the EU leaders’ new teams consist of politicians in the second and third tiers, which are sooner known by their proximity to national leaders or showmanship than real achievements or comprehensive ideas. Still, there weren’t really grounds to expect anything different.
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Finally, the climate problem. Germany is pushing ahead with an eco-revolution, but few EU states want to follow Berlin. Eastern Europeans are opposed to the rapid decarbonisation of their economies, because they want to secure their prosperity with traditional energies before they adopt the expensive alternative energy sources. The eco-revolution will probably be nipped in the bud, sabotaged by conservative-minded European societies, not to think of the USA, India and China - the world's biggest polluters, who have only a tired smile left for the German eco-revolution.

The trend of world politics for the 2020s is evident. The transatlantic bloc is weakening, but it remains united under American pressure. In Asia, a counter-alliance is developing, in which China and Russia will play the leading role.

Putin, Russia and the West: beyond stereotype
Fyodor Lukyanov
The clash of Putin’s ‘constructive’ with Bush’s ‘negative’ had an almost fatal outcome. But it drew a line under the dangerous escalation and since then Russia and the West have gradually entered a different stage, the contours of which are as yet impossible to define.
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