Valdai Club

The past decade has been the most difficult in the history of the European Union. The 1920s could become even more complicated and dangerous. We may be at the beginning of the end of the West as we know it. A new generation of politicians and thinkers must be brought in to put Europe back on the right path of stability and growth; the present one is blinded by the triumphalism of the past 30 years and is incapable of making wise decisions. The EU is overburdened with serious problems, none of which can be solved in the medium term and each weighs so heavily that the EU could be crushed by any of these problems.

Take Brexit, which the rest of the EU countries were still trying to prevent. The US, on the other hand, supported Brexit, while Washington is planning a free trade area with the UK after Brexit. There is probably also a special military alliance between Washington and London - these two states will try together to make world politics. Germany and France are therefore developing their own agenda, and cannot be suppressed by the Anglo-Saxons. The West then splits.

The US is Europe's biggest problem. The Americans are in a geopolitical battle with their rivals Russia and China, and the Western allies are being absolutely obeyed. The EU, the Americans demand, should no longer obtain energy from Russia and no longer buy technology from China. The US wants Moscow and Beijing to stop making money in the West for their military build-up. The US thought of democratizing Russia and China; After the attempt failed 20 years ago, Washington is seeking to contain its rivals. Presumably, Europeans will buckle because they are totally dependent on the US market economically. In doing so, the West is pushing Russia further into the arms of China. The new Eurasia is emerging - and the West will later deeply regret not having partnered with it. Instead of seeking to join forces, the EU wants to compete with both countries - in the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa...

The next problem is the ageing of European societies, which can break the overburdened social systems. The pension problem has been a problem for the EU states for decades, and in the 2020s it could have dramatic consequences if the baby boom generation retires. Another problem is the divergence of the euro zone. The north of Europe is getting richer - the south is getting poorer. There will be no single financial area with a budget, but the populations of Northern and Eastern Europe will rebel against it.

Finally, the climate problem. Germany is pushing ahead with an eco-revolution, but few EU states want to follow Berlin. Eastern Europeans are opposed to the rapid decarbonisation of their economies, because they want to secure their prosperity with traditional energies before they adopt the expensive alternative energy sources. The eco-revolution will probably be nipped in the bud, sabotaged by conservative-minded European societies, not to think of the USA, India and China - the world's biggest polluters, who have only a tired smile left for the German eco-revolution.

The trend of world politics for the 2020s is evident. The transatlantic bloc is weakening, but it remains united under American pressure. In Asia, a counter-alliance is developing, in which China and Russia will play the leading role.