Valdai Club

The international system has always been in flux, but the early twenty-first century has seen an acceleration of geopolitical, economic, technological, and ecological shifts that appear to be rewriting the rules of world politics. Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine in 2022 and NATO’s involvement in the conflict, China’s quick global rise, intensifying US–China competition, regional wars in the Middle East and Africa, the growing role of emerging powers in Africa and Latin America, the disruptive impact of climate change, and the revolutionary pace of artificial intelligence are just some of the developments that suggest that the world order established since 1945 may be unravelling, writes Yahia H. Zoubir for the 22nd Annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club.

Such changes raise fundamental questions: Is the international system undergoing a qualitative transformation rather than an incremental adjustment? Are we witnessing a revolution in world politics, and if so, what are the forces driving it?

This essay argues that while the international system is not yet in the throes of a full revolution comparable to the aftermath of the Second World War or the collapse of the Cold War order, it is undergoing profound qualitative changes. The forces propelling this transformation are multidimensional: the relative decline of US hegemony and the rise of multipolarity; the disruptive influence of economic globalisation, technological innovation, and climate change; and the resurgence of ideology and identity in global politics. Together, these factors are undermining the post-1991 liberal order and pointing toward a more fragmented and contested international system.

Theoretical Considerations: What Constitutes Qualitative Change in World Politics?

To determine whether the present moment represents a “revolution” in international relations, one must first clarify what constitutes qualitative change in the global order. In the literature, revolutions in world politics are typically understood as moments when the organising principles of the system are fundamentally reconfigured. Classic historical benchmarks illustrate this: the Peace of Westphalia (1648) institutionalised the principle of state sovereignty; the Congress of Vienna (1815) established a multipolar Concert of Europe; the aftermath of the Second World War produced a bipolar order dominated by the United States and the Soviet Union; and the end of the Cold War in 1991 ushered in US unipolarity and the liberal international order.

In this sense, qualitative change extends beyond mere shifts in the distribution of power. It involves transformations in the norms, institutions, and structures of authority that underpin the international system itself. By this definition, the current system exhibits several signs of impending transformation, even if the contours of the new order remain uncertain.

Decline of US Hegemony and the Rise of Multipolarity

A central driver of contemporary systemic change is the erosion of US unipolar dominance. The “unipolar moment” of the 1990s, when the US appeared unrivalled militarily, economically, and ideologically, has given way to a far more contested environment. Several dynamics illustrate this shift:

1. China’s Rise: China’s meteoric economic growth and increasing military modernisation have made it a peer competitor to the United States. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) reflect Beijing’s intent to remodel global economic governance. China emphasises performance legitimacy—the state’s ability to deliver economic growth, stability, poverty reduction, and social order—as the core of political legitimacy. This challenges Western democracies, which derive legitimacy primarily from free, competitive elections and individual rights.
2. Russia’s Pragmatism: While Beijing promotes an alternative developmental model rooted in performance and stability, Moscow positions itself as an ideological and geopolitical counterweight to liberal democracy, emphasising sovereignty, tradition, and centralised authority. Russia’s assertiveness since 2008, and more so since 2014 (following Western provocations) and the 2022 special military operation in Ukraine have signalled open defiance of the imposed Western norms and institutions. Moscow seeks not global dominance but a revision of what it sees as unacceptable Western-centric rules.
3. Emerging Powers: States like India, Brazil, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are pursuing more autonomous foreign policies, balancing between great powers, and demanding greater representation in global governance. The recent expansion of BRICS (to include countries like Egypt, Iran) illustrates their dissatisfaction with Western-led institutions. Many emerging powers view the US and Europe as interventionist and hypocritical—promoting democracy abroad while undermining sovereignty in cases like Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. By turning to Beijing and Moscow, these states counterbalance Western dominance and are strengthening their bargaining power in dealings with the West.

These developments do not mark a simple return to Cold War bipolarity, but rather the emergence of a ‘complex multipolarity’ characterised by multiple centres of power. Multipolarity represents a qualitative change because it undermines the hierarchical liberal order that relied on US dominance.

Globalisation Under Stress and the Fragmentation of the Economic Order

Another force reshaping the international system is the crisis or, rather, ‘polycrisis of globalisation’. For decades, the liberal order rested on the assumption that economic interdependence would foster peace and prosperity. However, the 2008 global financial crisis, the disruptions caused by COVID-19, and the weaponisation of supply chains have undermined faith in globalisation.

• Geo-economics and Fragmentation: The US–China rivalry has resulted in a push toward economic decoupling, particularly in sensitive sectors like semiconductors, 5G, and artificial intelligence. The weaponisation of energy and food supplies, seen in the aftermath of the Ukraine war, highlights how interdependence is increasingly used for coercive purposes.
• Resilience and Regionalisation: States are reorienting toward “friend-shoring” and regional trade blocs rather than global free trade. This trend suggests a reorganisation of the global economy into competing spheres of influence.

Such fragmentation signals a departure from the globalisation that underpinned the post–Cold War order and thus represents an important qualitative shift in the international system.

Technological Disruption and the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Technological transformation is another driver of systemic change. Innovations in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum computing, and space exploration are altering the balance of power, the nature of warfare, and the very fabric of societies.

• AI and Military Competition: AI is reshaping strategic competition, with the US and China locked in a race for dominance in this domain. AI-enabled surveillance and autonomous weapons raise ethical and legal questions that existing international institutions are ill-equipped to manage.
• Cybersecurity: Cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, and digital espionage blur the line between war and peace, challenging traditional conceptions of sovereignty.
• Societal Impacts: Technological disruption is fuelling inequality, the dislocation of labour, and political polarisation—domestic trends that spill over into the international arena.

These dynamics amount to a structural transformation comparable to the industrial revolutions of previous centuries, suggesting a profound qualitative change in world politics.

Climate Change and the Environmental Crisis

Perhaps the most far-reaching driver of systemic transformation is climate change. Unlike previous challenges that involved states competing for power, climate change is a planetary crisis that transcends national boundaries and undermines the foundations of human security.

• Security Implications: Rising sea levels, desertification, and extreme weather events are producing mass displacement, food insecurity, and competition over scarce resources. Such pressures are exacerbating conflicts in fragile regions, notably the Sahel and South Asia.
• Geopolitical Dimensions: The race for the critical minerals necessary for green technologies has added a new dimension to global competition. States are seeking to secure supply chains of lithium, cobalt, and rare earths, often in politically unstable regions.
• Governance Challenge: International institutions have struggled to find an adequate response, highlighting the discrepancy between global problems and state-centric governance structures.

The environmental crisis represents a systemic shock that challenges the very logic of sovereignty and territoriality—the pillars of the Westphalian order—thus signalling deep qualitative change.

Ideology, Identity, and the Return of Civilisational Politics

Another crucial force reshaping world politics is the resurgence of ideology and identity. The post-Cold War illusion that liberal democracy had triumphed has been shattered.

• Strong-State Resurgence: China and Russia explicitly reject liberal ‘democratic norms,’ offering alternative models of governance. Their accounts resonate in many parts of the Global South, where Western liberalism is seen as hypocritical or self-serving. Furthermore, numerous states in the Global South are demanding a reform of the UN Security Council because they see it as outdated, unrepresentative, and dominated by the post–World War II power structure.
• Civilisational Discourse: Leaders such as Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan increasingly frame global politics in civilisational terms, appealing to cultural authenticity and rejecting Western universalism.
• Populism in the West: The rise of nationalist and populist movements across the United States and Europe has undermined confidence in liberal internationalism and weakened Western cohesion. This renewed emphasis on ideology and identity suggests a systemic shift away from the presumption of a universal liberal order toward a more fragmented international landscape defined by competing value systems.

Continuities: Why the Current Order Has Not Yet Collapsed

Despite these transformative forces, it would be premature to declare a completed revolution in world politics. Several continuities persist:

1. US Power Remains Pivotal: Despite its relative decline, the United States retains unmatched military capabilities, a central role in global finance, and, despite declining rapidly, important soft power.
2. Institutional Persistence: Institutions like the UN, WTO, and IMF, while weakened, continue to structure global interactions. Their resilience suggests that the existing order has not been fully overturned.
3. Interdependence Endures: Even amidst decoupling, global trade and finance remain deeply interconnected. China and the US, for instance, are rivals but also major economic partners.

These continuities underscore that the current moment is best understood as a transitional phase—an unravelling of the old without the full consolidation of a new order.

Conclusion: A World in Transition

The breathtaking pace of contemporary global developments does indeed suggest that the international system is undergoing qualitative change. The erosion of US hegemony, the rise of multipolarity, the crisis of globalisation, technological disruption, climate change, and the resurgence of identity politics are collectively undermining the liberal order that dominated the past three decades. However, the new order has not yet been crystallised. Instead, the world finds itself in an interregnum—an uncertain transition characterised by contestation, fragmentation, and experimentation.

Whether this transition culminates in a revolutionary reordering of world politics will depend on how these forces interact in the coming decade. Will multipolarity stabilise or spiral into conflict? Will technology and climate change serve as catalysts for cooperation, or will they deepen strategic rivalries? The answers will determine whether the current moment marks an incremental adjustment or a systemic revolution. What is already evident, however, is that the core assumptions of the post–Cold War era—US primacy, liberal universalism, and benign globalisation—no longer hold. The world is entering uncharted territory, where global politics are likely to be more contested, pluralistic, and uncertain than at any point since 1945.