Poroshenko was eager to have an entry “president” in his work record book. But such a man who failed to realize that under these very circumstances only a political and military genius like Bonaparte (and Poroshenko is not even a match for Barras) could have kept power, does not deserve sympathy.
In an interview with Rossiya Segodnya,
President of the
Center for Systems Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko said that under the current circumstances everyone in Ukraine has a stake in another coup.
Those who overthrew Viktor Yanukovych a year prior to his guaranteed retirement did not wait for him to add weight to Ukraine’s economy using Russian financing and negotiate a discount on gas prices. They were obviously not thinking adequately and, as one of them stated rightly, were unable to think about tomorrow. Moreover, they did not quite understand what was happening before their eyes.
However, if we are so skeptical about the brains of the February “revolutionaries,” what can be said about the intellectual potential of a man who decided to run for president in Ukraine last May? At the time, it was abundantly clear that the Ukrainian economy no longer existed and the central authorities had no control over Donetsk and Lugansk, as well as other regions. Their control over Kiev was also relative. Anyway, they did not prevent neo-Nazi militants from marching through a government district. By that time, it was also obvious that the punitive operation in Novorossiya was falling through and the West would only provide verbal support.
I think Poroshenko was eager to have an entry “president” in his work record book. One could feel sorry for him because his dream was realized when Ukraine de facto ceased to exist, and its last legitimate president – Yanukovych – entrenched himself in Russia, hated and despised by his former friends and colleagues more than by his enemies. But such a man who failed to realize that under these very circumstances only a political and military genius like Bonaparte (and Poroshenko is not even a match for Barras) could have kept power, does not deserve sympathy.
What to do when nothing is there
Yanukovych is hated because he had the opportunity to prevent a massacre, but apparently failed to fulfill this relatively simple task because he and his entourage were too stupid and greedy. Compared to him, Poroshenko deserves much more hatred because he undertook to resolve a far more difficult task – to restore a disintegrating state – without the proper education, talent or team. All he did was to elevate the massacre that had already started but did not yet pass the point of no return, to an entirely new level – the highest possible in Ukraine.
A man who decided “to kill everyone” instead of searching for compromise ought to at least have the opportunity to execute his plan.
When Poroshenko received nominal authority, he was the weakest figure in Ukrainian politics. He did not have a private army even at the level of Akhmetov, to say nothing of Kolomoisky. Taruta kept a tighter rain over the Donetsk Region than Poroshenko over his native Vinnitsa. The armed forces and security services were subordinate not to the commander-in-chief but to US military advisors. He did not have Tymoshenko’s charisma or a small-time party team like Klitschko or Yatsenyuk. Even the IMF loans granted to Kiev were officially ensured by Yatsenyuk, not Poroshenko. Basically Poroshenko had no real levers for exercising presidential power.
He had no room for maneuver because the alternative political flank represented by the Communist Party of Ukraine and the Party of Regions (on which Yushchenko often relied during clashes with associates) had been destroyed. In the race for the most radical position, Poroshenko could not outdo his potential rivals (not only Yarosh or Tyagnybok, but even some pathetic Lyashko). Meanwhile, a regime that is lagging behind society’s radicalization during revolutionary upheavals (and Ukraine is in fact witnessing a Nazi revolution) is doomed to a quick collapse.
De facto Poroshenko appeared to be a frontman who has to assume responsibility for all the horrors of the civil war and might have to part not only with politics but with life itself.
Following the advice of advisors
Most certainly, at the moment when the Malaysian Boeing airliner was downed (stubborn attempts by the Ukrainian authorities to thwart the investigation suggest their involvement), the United States had already known that it was unable to retain Ukraine. This was clear even to passive onlookers, not to mention the government of the country with the world’s largest diplomatic corps and intelligence staff.
In effect, practically all US actions regarding Ukraine since July have been aimed at pulling its tail out of Ukraine with minimal losses. The United States has been trying not only to minimize losses but to gain bonuses from this already lost game.
In Russia, quasi-intellectuals could have heated debates on whether “Putin messed up or not,” whether “all is lost” or not yet, whether Russia should just keep Crimea or whether it was worth taking Donetsk and Lugansk, too. Contrary to the widely held opinion (widespread thanks to humorist Mikhail Zadornov), far from all Americans are idiots. They are good at assessing their opponents’ strategic interests.
All US actions during the Ukrainian crisis show that the United States understands perfectly well that Russia needs all of Ukraine (likely without the Western regions but definitely up to the Zbruch River). Washington developed its game on the premise that Russia will have to enter Ukraine. It carefully removed all other options for returning Ukraine to its pre-coup condition, and fanning up the animal brutality of Kiev’s punitive machine, went all-out to prevent Putin from resisting the temptation to introduce troops.
However, it became obvious by July that the self-defense fighters cannot be routed. Only Kievan strategists do not know that if the rebel regions are holding off the government troops for at least two months, then the chances of suppressing the rebellion are around zero.
By the end of June, Novorossiya passed the critical point. There were retreats and losses of large territories at a later time, but in July the correlation of forces ceased to be incomparable. The Ukrainian aviation lost the skies and was only able to bomb residential districts from high altitudes (which is not sufficient to support troops). In some areas, self-defense fighters started dealing armored counter-strikes, began to commit acts of counterbattery suppression and formed the first artillery groups.
To sum up, in July, the hotchpotch of units of the former armed forces of the old Ukraine – neo-Nazi battalions, private armies of oligarchs and simply criminal groups such as the Right Sector’s Corps – had to fight against a small but efficient, equipped and continuously expanding army that could send numerous volunteers to the rear and turn them into reserves for training. These reserves appeared on the frontlines in late August and it would be ridiculous to assume that the Americans did not know about them if they knew about practically everything else.
In other words, the United States understood perfectly well that the Kiev regime would be overthrown and that formally Russian troops would not cross the border (or would cross but only when the Romanian troops go to Moldova, the Hungarian troops to the Transcarpathia and the Polish troops to Galicia). The Kiev regime will be deposed by Ukrainians represented by Novorossiya self-defense fighters. Putin has proved to the Americans that he is prepared to play on their territory and according to their rules, and win beautifully.
If the Americans wished to save Poroshenko, they would have advised him to draw in his troops, occupy a defensive position and commence talks. At the same time, they would have protected him against his own radicals. Self-defense units were developing their offensive slowly and, having received the relevant order, the Ukrainian troops would have had time to leave. But they have not received such an order. On the contrary, they are compelled to launch senseless suicidal attacks.
Moreover, Poroshenko dissolved Verkhovna Rada at the start of Novorossiya’s offensive and the Americans did not stop it, either. Maybe Poroshenko did not even suspect that this move would sharply increase the number of his personal enemies from among the hitherto loyal segment of the Ukrainian political elite and further destabilize the situation. Most importantly, having dissolved parliament, Poroshenko remained the only source of formal power, thereby assuming all responsibility for the developments in the country. Maybe it did not occur to him to expect such consequences but the Americans knew of them and did not interfere.
From Mariupol to Kiev
As a result, on August 29-30, a crowd of far from peaceful people (including armed fighters of unbeknown units) stormed the Defense Ministry in Kiev. These people demanded not only the resignation of the defense minister but also the impeachment of Poroshenko. Indicatively, parliament was supposed to be actively involved in impeachment procedures. In other words, the already dissolved Verkhovna Rada was supposed to remove the president from power.
But this is only the beginning. Ukrainian troops have not yet suffered their major defeats. They are encircled, but not yet destroyed. They have not yet surrendered Mariupol and Novorossiya’s army is not yet ready to attack Zaporozhiye. In a week or two, coffins will begin emerging from the grounds of entrapped troops and scared-to-death “heroes of the anti-terrorist operation” will flee the military theater, leaving their equipment and arms. But only the lucky ones will manage to escape. Extreme radicals in Kiev will ask who is to blame for the defeat. It is an easy guess – the Nazis will blame Poroshenko. They will charge him with not being sufficiently cruel in destroying the Novorossiya population and countering the opponents of the regime in Kiev and the cities under its control (especially if by that time there is a successful anti-Kievan rebellion in one of Novorossiya’s million-strong cities).
At the same time, Kolomoisky’s team in Dnepropetrovsk, which has become used during its frenzied activities in Ukraine to playing foul and then bribing itself free by making a concession, will start to think about who to sacrifice to Moscow this time. I would offer Korban and Filatov to sacrifice Kolomoisky but I am positive that they will agree to sacrifice Poroshenko. Let us not even recall Tymoshenko, who never forgives anyone and is confident that she can come to terms with Putin, get money from Merkel and compel Obama’s army to defend Ukraine. It is best for her not to get near Poroshenko.
To sum up, this is how the stars are aligned – everyone has a stake in another coup.
What is America’s interest in this you might ask? The answer is simple. Washington has to pull its tail out of Ukraine before it gets over a barrel. To leave and dump Poroshenko is not comme il faut; after all, Washington promised him to fight “Russian aggression” shoulder-to-shoulder. However, if Poroshenko is ousted by completely spaced-out Nazis, particularly if they unleash terror, the United States might suddenly see the light and say: “Okay, democracy failed there. Of course, Russia is to blame for the overthrow of the great democrat Poroshenko by these Nazis but we cannot continue supporting the Kievan government because it is absolutely illegal and consists of utter creeps.”
True, to prevent Poroshenko from telling anyone what the Americans promised him and when – for instance, how they advised him to bomb Donbass into the Stone Age or how the destruction of the Boeing airliner was arranged – he will have to be destroyed. But hardly anyone will be surprised if a crowd tears him apart right in his residence after a series of defeats suffered by the Kievan troops accompanied by enormous losses.
And here comes another plus. After the fully-fledged Nazis come to power, Poland, Romania and Hungary might be worried about the destiny of their minorities in Western Ukraine. They will be able to introduce their troops only with Russia’s consent and only into the areas where Russia will allow this to occur. Otherwise, Novorossiya’s self-defense fighters might find their way to Warsaw.
The primary issue is that the occupation of the former Ukrainian territories by Eastern European “democracies” opens up a window of opportunity for a full-scale international legal settlement of the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis – taking due account of Russia’s interests.
To receive all these blessings it is necessary to engineer Poroshenko’s disappearance. The Americans have already squeezed out of him everything they could. From today forward, only a real Nazi regime can continue the war and ensure the required number of deaths, refugees and destruction.
Thus, Poroshenko does not have a chance – everyone is interested in his downfall and almost everyone in his physical removal.
Had he followed the example of the wise Tyagnibok, then he would be fine. The latter keeps a low profile, does not fight anywhere and has strengthened his positions in Galicia. He might even supply volunteers to the auxiliary police of the would-be Polish occupation regime. Meanwhile, Canadian citizens of Ukrainian descent will study the history of Ukraine’s short-term statehood by reading the memoirs of Tyagnibok rather than Poroshenko.
This article was originally published in Russian on www.ria.ru