The Munich conference has shown how high is the level of uncertainty in the West. It is enough to recall the title of one of the panels - "The Future of the West - decline or revival?" Is NATO outdated, or more important than ever? Such contraposition was the leitmotif of the conference.
According to Alexander Dynkin, president of the E.Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), the Munich Security Conference once again showed that the world order is in dynamic move from a unipolar world to a polycentric order. German Chancellor Angela Merkel in her speech gave an impressive statistics: over the past quarter of a century from 1990 to 2016 the gross domestic product of the EU increased 2.2 times, the US GDP - 3 times the and Chinese GDP - 20 times. This confirms that the unipolar world no longer exists.
It is not easy for the West to recognize this reality. We see, how in Western countries disappears the social contract which operated the last 50 years, and was based on the fact that each generation lives better than the last. Everything is broken now. There is a growing dissatisfaction among the voters, we see Brexit, Trump's victory; 2017 as the year of the elections in the Netherlands, France, Italy and Bulgaria only adds the uncertainty. Elections will also be held in Iran and South Korea.
The Munich conference has shown how high is the level of uncertainty in the West. It is enough to recall the title of one of the panels - "The Future of the West - decline or revival?" Is NATO outdated, or more important than ever? Such contraposition was the leitmotif of the conference.
The Europeans were looking forward that the Americans somehow clarify their position. Donald Trump sent to Munich almost all the members of his administration who deal with security issues, including Vice-President Pence, Defense Minister Mattis, Secretary of State Tillerson, and General Kelly, who is responsible for internal security.
Michael Pence's speech in Munich was the first major foreign policy statement of the new US administration, but it did not clarify the priorities of Washington. Pence followed ultra-conservative position, arguing that the world can only be achieved by force, that the US will support NATO, but the Europeans have to pay for it. The Europeans were badly impressed that he did not mention the European Union.
Russia, for its part, should treat the Trump administration from the position of affairs, and not words. There were a lot of words, sometimes very good ones, but there is still no clarity.
The Munich Security Conference was devoted mostly to the Trans-Atlantic region, where all the major uncertainties are now concentrated. As for China and its global role, there is just more certainty. Minister for Foreign Affairs of the PRC made a very balanced statement in Munich. He said that China-US relationship determines the modern world order. According to him, Russian-Chinese relations are also a constant of the world order, and China will do its utmost to promote mutual understanding between Russia and the United States.
