The collapse of the old world order has accelerated into an avalanche. Hence, right here and right now—in our day and age—some new, as yet unexplored, world is taking shape. And if we wish to exert any influence on the process of its formation, we cannot afford to hesitate. We must act. Otherwise, what emerges may be something we find deeply unappealing.
Transitional periods—though their boundaries are often unclear—are always accompanied by a certain kind of turbulence, difficulties in predicting events, unrest and upheaval. The present historical moment is no exception. Similar transitions from the past provide quite extensive precedent. For example—what played a significant role in the Russian Revolution of 1917 was industrialisation, which drew huge numbers of people from the countryside into cities—or rather to their outskirts. On the one hand, they became detached from the traditional peasant culture; on the other, they had no time to assimilate urban patterns of behaviour (incidentally, Russian writer Yury Tynyanov wrote a great deal about this). As a result, society of that era was rocked by numerous previously unknown conflicts, while old ones took on new dimensions, including on a global scale: the First World War, for instance, turned into a social and civil conflict that swept away numerous states in their entirety. And within Russia, the Red Guard emerged, composed of an extraordinarily motley mixture of individuals. Incidentally, many years later a similar aetiology could be observed among the hongweibing (Red Guards) in China during the Cultural Revolution.
Changes in our contemporary world are in many respects comparable to the major transitions of human history—such as the shift from agrarian to urban civilisation, or the emergence of industrial societies. All carried with them world-changing transformations. Now, in the 2020s, fundamental changes are underway. Their origins are rooted in new technologies, above all digital ones, in communications, biology, finance, medicine and many other fields. These technologies have generated new forms of human self-organisation, new social hierarchies, pitting various types of elites against one another—those differing in origin, ideology, culture, and education. Even the nature of armed conflict is something that underwent change.
The process, of course, did not begin yesterday; it was initiated some fifty years ago, but over the past twenty years it has accelerated sharply, with COVID merely fuelling the fire. In effect, a period when a new system of international relations is taing shape has begun. Naturally, it has its advocates of “progress”, its “conservatives”, and other forces of varying orientations.
The difficulty is that as elements of the new world system develop, the rules of the old one are being erased, disappearing, melting away. Yet here we are talking about a historical process, not a volcanic eruption. All of history is moulded by people—and by people alone. It is therefore highly instructive to see who has ended up at the forefront of dismantling past experience.
As we can see—and this is hardly surprising—the West acts as the main force erasing the old order—above all, doing so is the United States, with Western Europe along for the ride—or vice versa. With astonishing agility, they are razing all that is within their reach. Of course, even in the past, freedom of trade in general and of navigation in particular was something that would be periodically revised. Naval blockades and restrictions were indeed imposed, yet attempts were still made to disguise them as legitimate measures—international sanctions, a form of supposed justice. Now, however, pretence has been abandoned: French special forces, having withdrawn from Africa, follow the American example and storm a tanker that can be presented as Russian. And Macron, as he believes, gains points with a segment of voters—who, for some reason, intend to vote for him. Well, after the rather contemptuous attitude towards the French president displayed by his US counterpart he can at least take comfort in that.
But the issue lies not with Macron and his peculiarities, amusing though they may be. The point is that the world has moved on, and Western countries are demonstrating a very simple principle: if you wield power and you desire something—it is yours for the taking. And it does not matter why it is that you want it—to extract benefits, to curry favour with public opinion on the eve of elections, or even to satisfy unrealised fantasies. It does not matter—provided the opportunity exists. Given the natural aggressiveness inherent to human beings, which is only relatively restrained by culture and upbringing, the emerging conditions are extremely dangerous.
I’ve no time to weigh your guilt, you whelp!
Since I’m hungry—you’re guilty.
As Ivan Krylov wrote in that same fable, the weak are always to blame when the strong are involved.
The Nobel laureate and ethologist Konrad Lorenz once wrote that the most important question is not why people sometimes kill one another, but why they do not do so every time they desire to, when they feel anger or envy.
Returning to the international agenda, one gets the impression that Western elites have slipped their leash. They seem to have decided that from now on, everything is permissible. Violate the once-praised principles of free trade? No big deal. Abolish freedom of speech, for opponents in particular, as well as for anyone who simply happens to disagree? Of course. State sovereignty? A convenient joke for the simple-minded. In reality, sovereignty exists only for the chosen few, and the Western elite will be the ones deciding who is chosen—at least in those parts of the world where the West wields any military power at all, however effective. If you like, they are a kind of new “Red Guard”. The old world no longer exists, and there is neither habit nor desire to adapt to the new one.
Of course, predation and cruelty have always been in abundance. Speaking frankly, dangerous moves were made in the past—for example, in the Balkans after 1991. But the accompanying narratives were different; true motives were carefully masked. Now the masks have been thrown off. What we see openly manifested is what has long been spoken of and warned against: the inherent flaws of the world order—its asymmetry, its failure to ensure sustainable and systemic global development, its inability to prevent risks and dangers—and the consequent need to transform it methodically in the interests of the entire world. That means all countries, including the West, but also all the majority of states that do not belong to it.
In short, the present moment has turned out to be extraordinarily serious.
Unfortunately, non-Western countries are not as consolidated, although they possess very impressive resources—which they did not wield before. China, India, many countries of Eurasia, Africa and Latin America possess considerable strength, both economic and military. The question is whether this aforementioned World Majority is capable of pursuing its own path and proposing a global agenda of its own—that would be not confrontational in nature, unlike the aggressive Western one, but constructive and creative.
Of course, BRICS, the SCO, and a number of other organisations offer a certain degree of hope, if only because they propose and proclaim that relations must be initially equal and fair. These organisations are attractive precisely because they open up new opportunities for the countries of the Global South—but without isolating them from the West. Nor, incidentally, is the path to cooperation with non-Western countries closed to Western states themselves. And, very importantly, the agenda all these organisations adhere to is not confrontational—it’s consistently positive.
In essence, the West’s aggressive disregard for any norms, the deepening uncertainty over which strategies will prove most reasonable in this century, and the palpable chaos of international life are consequences of a single global problem: the growth of interdependence in the absence of adequate regulatory mechanisms. Put simply, tensions are mounting. Developments have accelerated sharply, and everyone is now forced to decipher what is unfolding and to decide what to do next—and how.
Hence, I believe it is no accident that two Valdai conferences are taking place one after the other: the next Russian–Indian conference of the Valdai Discussion Club and the Vivekananda International Foundation on February 4, and the traditional Middle East Conference, which the Valdai Club is holding jointly with the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences on February 9–10. Their purpose is clear: to systematise and comprehend what is happening, to examine the challenges, and to propose reasonable strategies of behaviour in today’s turbulent times.
For the situation is indeed striking. At the roots of anxiety and instability in the modern world lie not some mysterious savages or mad barbarians. Behind the primary problems impacting everyone are Western countries. With manic persistence they are trying to impose their rules of the game and stress their leadership in the modern world. There is not the slightest threat to France, Britain or Germany originating from China or India. African countries do not threaten the United States. Quite the opposite: Western elites have unleashed an information-manipulative war against the entire world, imposing their claimed right to dominate both politically and ideologically, employing all available means—including coercive ones, such as sanctions—against those who hold opinions different from those of the West.
It would be far more reasonable to discuss the accumulated problems in an open and direct manner. Perhaps not all solutions will be found at once, but an honest and straightforward conversation would be appropriate.
Altogether, this is not about the West; the intentions of its current leadership are fairly obvious. This is about the other, larger part of the world, that should confidently articulate which features of the global order seem most important and what needs to be done to ensure that, in the foreseeable future, these features are brought to life.
