Valdai Club

The brisk start of 2016 made it clear that the situation is not getting better in any sphere. World markets are nervous because of upheavals in China; indexes are dropping and players are losing money. Terrorists of all hues, primarily from the Islamic State (banned in Russia), are conducting resolute attacks all over the world. Explosions are staged in Istanbul, Jakarta and Burkina Faso. The general humanitarian situation is not good. The number of refugees is growing and nobody knows what to do with them. Refugees are bringing with them the conflicts and curses from which they fled. Educated Europeans and Americans are less inclined to help them, whereas the risk of civilian conflicts keeps growing.

In general, there is disorder at every turn. However, we shouldn’t exaggerate and scare ourselves – the human race has always had a difficult life. Moreover, the scale of current threats, for all the danger of ISIS, does not compare with World War II. However, it is not ruled out that in the future we might find our balance at the level of the Stone Age thanks to humanity’s rapid degradation. So, a search for a balance of forces is vital.

Several questions arise in this context. How is it possible to reach the required balance? How can a situation be created so that the majority of key world players feel comfortable and radical elements aren’t able to spoil life for everyone? Our report quotes examples of more or less stable decisions that ensured balance for years. This applies to the Yalta-Potsdam international arrangement that was established after WWII and the Peace of Westphalia that is mentioned by many analysts. For all the crises these systems existed for a relatively long span of time.

The main question is whether something similar is possible today.

However, it is impossible to answer this question straightforwardly because a new world must first be invented. We shouldn’t underrate the role of creativity in forming it, including modern political systems. Almost everything we have today in political life was first written on parchment, clay tablet or paper.

The Yalta-Potsdam system was created by an intellectual breakthrough and the rule of thumb. It was a result of the efforts of the best brains of that time. They invented a fairly complicated system of co-existence after WWII that accommodated the interests of all parties. Needless to say, the competition of countries and blocs did not disappear and conflicts occurred from time to time but the idea of the coexistence of the two systems, which could even be described as constructive, struck root.

Meanwhile, the Peace of Westphalia was primarily an intellectual breakthrough. In effect, it was an intellectual revolution that allowed the state to assert itself.

The Roman Empire was also an intellectual achievement. This idea had to be accompanied by the drawing up of the rights of its citizens, general laws and the like.

We need an intellectual breakthrough now. A new balanced world has to be invented and described just as biologists describe future species of animals and astronomers tell us where to look for new galaxies.

Let’s take the situation in the Middle East by way of example. There are many reasons for it. One is probably that it makes no sense to create national states in the Arab world that fell out of the Ottoman Empire which was destroyed 100 years ago. There are three large nations in the Arab world – Arabs, Turks and Persians. There are some relatively smaller nations such as Kurds. However, the borders drawn by a ruler at the start of the 20th century make almost no sense at all. The region requires a different system of government and self-government. This system must be invented and described. It must be based on consensus. Should it be a global system of co-existence of communities with a fixed representation? Or some federation of an unclear formation? Or some other forms of statehood? One thing is certain – ISIS is trying to offer its own answer, which is dangerous and cruel and claims to be universal. Does this archaic and futuristic attempt have a chance? The answer has yet to be found. It should be relevant and humane and aimed at developing a future where people will be comfortable to live.

This idea also applies to the world in general. We should create it, paint it in our minds, discuss it and build it.


On January 21, 2016, the Valdai Discussion Club is to present its annual report, titled "War and Peace in the 21st century. International stability and balance of the new type".