Valdai Club

On July 28, at 16:00 Moscow time (GMT +3), the Valdai Discussion Club held an online discussion titled “Global Response to the Pandemic: the Strategy of the World Community and Social Challenges”.

The expert discussion is timed to coincide with the release of the Valdai Paper by Alan Freeman, Co-Director of the Geopolitical Economy Research Group at the University of Manitoba (Canada), “How Many People Need Die? A Real Alternative to Herd Immunity."

The global chain reaction of lockdowns due to the coronavirus pandemic and the question of their effectiveness have sparked public debates around the world. There are only a few of those who did not take restrictive measures with Sweden as a textbook example.

The issue of human rights violations during quarantine has been widely discussed. During the epidemic, a number of models were developed, forecasting the dynamics of the pandemic. The concept of herd immunity has become the key; it’s thought that when it is achieved, the epidemic will stop. Accordingly, the question of herd immunity and of the feasibility of achieving it has become particularly acute. It is the possible alternatives to herd immunity that are the subject of the new Valdai Paper. Another aspect of the discussion is related to the overestimation of quantitative parameters in the mainstream model of herd immunity (60-70% of the population). However, there is an alternative approach associated with the difference in the predisposition to infection in different groups of the population, which means that the herd immunity threshold may be much lower than the usual figures (about 20% of the population).

How effective has the quarantine system been? What alternatives to lockdown are there? Why were they not in demand? What impact has the concept of herd immunity had on the system of introducing such measures? What ambiguities does it have? What measures need to be taken by the world community now that the first wave of the virus in many countries has begun to fade? The participants in the expert discussion will answer these and other questions.

Speakers:

• Alan Freeman, Co-Director of the Geopolitical Economy Research Group at the University of Manitoba (Canada) (author of the paper);
• Radhika Desai, Director of the Geopolitical Economy Research Group at the University of Manitoba (Canada);
• Karl Friston, neuroscientist and expert on neural networks (UK);
• Jordi Raich Curcó, Head of the Regional Delegation of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Mexico (also responsible for Belize, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador).

Moderator:

• Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director at the Valdai Discussion Club