Valdai Club

The report, prepared by a group of leading Russian experts on the Middle East on the basis of the third conference of the Valdai Club Middle East section that was held in Sochi on February 17-18, examines the impact of the “Arab Spring” on the formation of a new regional alignment of forces and the external intervention in the processes occurring in the Arab East.

On 17 February, the third conference of the Middle East Section of Valdai International Discussion Club commenced in Sochi. Mikhail Bogdanov, the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for the Middle East and the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, takes part in the conference. During the opening ceremony of the Forum he read off the following greeting message of Sergey Lavrov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia.

International organizations and individual Western countries have promised to provide massive financial support to the Arab Spring countries but have not yet made good on their promises due to persistent instability.

Russia and China may be better placed to play a more active role in the Middle East by intervening (in a positive way) in the crises gripping a number of countries in the region. Both nations enjoy long-standing friendly relations with the Arabs. But Moscow and Beijing must be clear about the meaning and consequences of the Arab Spring so as to steer the changes underway on their southern borders in the right direction.

The Arab Spring is now into its second year and its forward momentum shows no sign of abating. Those who predicted – or hoped – that the spring would be followed by another long winter have been proved wrong. The situation in the whole region has been completely transformed and old truths no longer hold.

Unlike during the Soviet era, when Moscow used to support all revolutions and national liberation movements around the world, this time Russia did not offer any direct support to the revolutions and rebel movements in any of the Arab countries.

The results of the Arab Spring – positive or negative – will become clear later. What’s important are the long-term results, not the short-term results. Has the United States played a role in the current processes in the Arab world? Are the West or Iran involved? The answer is yes.