Valdai Club

Scaremongers predicting abrupt departures in Berlin’s approach to nuclear arms control and deterrence got it wrong. The government’s coalition agreement emphasizes continuity over change, writes Valdai Club expert Hanna Notte.

At first sight, Russia and Iran seem to have compatible – or even similar – approaches to the JCPOA and regional security. Moscow’s emphasis on the need for all parties to return to the nuclear deal in its original form and avoid raising new demands at this stage is in line with Tehran’s view that the JCPOA is “concluded and sealed” and cannot be renegotiated. However, the more Russian officials elaborate on their views on regional security, the less attractive they appear to become to the Iranian side, Valdai Club experts Hanna Notte and Hamidreza Azizi write.

In the rich history of US-Russian (and before that, US-Soviet) cooperation on WMD arms control and non-proliferation, the Middle East has long occupied a central place. At the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference, Arab states were given assurances, through a resolution sponsored by Russia, the US and the UK, that NPT states parties would pursue the goal of establishing a WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East.

Last month, Russia held its long awaited “Syrian National Congress” in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, which pursued the ambitious goal of providing an umbrella platform for a wide spectrum of Syrians – including players not currently participating in the Geneva talks. While the Congress was initially conceptualized as an event to celebrate the victory of the regime and its allies over “terrorism” in Syria, it subsequently morphed into an initiative for launching a constitutional reform exercise.