Valdai Club

Jonathan Holslag

Hongyul Han

Yoshiko Margaret Herrera

Kerim Has

Eric Hoesli

Cui Heng

Mehmet Hecan

Irina Hakamada

Hiroaki Hayashi

Joost Hiltermann

Belgium

MENA Program Director at the International Crisis Group.

Materials

A New Arab Revival: Not to Be – For Now

While we may see further instances of popular contestation – the record since 2011 bears that out – a veritable Arab revival, in the broad sense of a fundamental transformation of how the region is governed, remains a distant hope.

Arab Protests: A Wicked Dance Between Rulers and Subjects

While the people in the squares may have been intimidated to retreat in some instances, their threshold for pain may be rising, along with their anger. This wicked dance between rulers and subjects is likely to determine the region’s shape for years to come.

Limited Strikes, Limited Fallout, Limited Response

The US-led airstrikes against Syrian government forces were in a sense “the best strikes possible”, having led to limited damage and limited response, believes Crisis Group's MENA program director and Valdai Club expert Joost Hiltermann. However, one should also be aware of the danger of escalation absent efficient communication channels.

Talking about Syrian Post-War Reconstruction

It is a truism that all conflicts must end, but they don’t necessarily end fast or conclusively. While announcing an end to the Syrian civil war is grossly premature, it nevertheless has become clear over the past year that the conflict has started to wind down, owing to the military commitments of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, and largely on the Assad regime’s terms.

Syria: From Vienna to Sochi

If Russia truly wishes to achieve its goals in Syria, it will need to bring more into line a regime that feels emboldened by Moscow’s support and acts as if impervious to Moscow’s pressure.