Valdai Club

In the spring of 2024, we can confidently say that the West has been unable to defeat Russia as it wanted and now it is concerned with ensuring that Russia “does not win.” So, in the future, for years, if not decades to come, security in Europe will be determined by the balance of power along the line of contact between Russia and NATO. Russia will do everything to maintain this balance for its part, writes Nikolai Silaev, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Caucasus Problems and Regional Security, MGIMO University. This article continues the discussion of the prospects for European security on our website.

During the fiist 30 years after the breakup of the Soviet Union, the former Soviet republics were like teenagers who graduated school at a time of historical transformation.


The Modern State is an organisation that is always busy, either with war or with preparations for war. Therefore, there is nothing surprising in the fact that the return of this Leviathan (more precisely, the actualisation of this image) arouses expectations that conflicts in international affairs will grow, writes Valdai Club expert Nikolai Silaev. The publication of this article continues online collaboration between Valdai Club as part of its Think Tank project and Argentine Council on International Relations (CARI).

We are witnessing an unprecedented peacetime shift in wealth and power distribution from the West to the East. The Old World, Eurasia, although being full of divisions, regains the lead. How to ensure stability in the region? What place is destined for Russia in the new order?

The risk of Russia’s involvement in low-intensity military conflicts has been growing since the early 2000s. Instability along many stretches of the border has forced Moscow to increase its military presence in the neighboring areas.

Could it be that the April hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and tension between Russia and Turkey might lead to the emergence of two opposing blocks in the Caucasus with Russia and Armenia on one side and Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia on the other?