Valdai Club

We can state that in 2020 the world defence industry has faced its largest crisis since the end of World War II, which hasn’t concluded yet. How we exit from it will depend on if a second wave of coronavirus arrives and related measures are taken, as well as the state of the economies of the world, which, as a result of this year’s depression, could significantly reduce defence spending over the next two-three years, wriltes Valdai Club expert Andrei Frolov.

The deployment of American medium-range missiles in Europe seems to be a completely resolved matter. The Russian response may be to build up the Iskander-M missile systems.

The deployment of a Russian military base in Venezuela does not make any sense, since its goals and objectives are not very clear. It will also be vulnerable to American actions during a possible conflict, and it will not be able to withstand long enough against the American armed forces.

In 2017, the share of Asia-Pacific in arms exports increased even more – up to 45%, which is apparently due to the growth of shipments under big contracts with China. There were also reports that last year India accounted for 16% of all Russian weapons export orders, and the order portfolio amounted $4 billion.

In 20 or 30 years, the role of the state in carrying out security functions will hardly disappear. It may change, a number of functions may leave the state control, or new ones may be added. But specific systemic changes are highly unlikely.

The greatest threat to Russia’s defense capability comes from cutting off military imports from Ukraine. Being able to promptly replace Ukrainian manufacturers seems unrealistic, and a ban on Ukrainian defense product supplies could become a real threat to proper performance under the state defense order and several export contracts.