Valdai Club

Relations between Japan and the Republic of Korea occupy an important place in the regional security complex of East Asia. Meanwhile, the fact that both countries have agreements with the United States guaranteeing their military security does not make these neighbours real allies.

In November 2021, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe noted that the country should strengthen cooperation with AUKUS members, especially in the field of cyber security and artificial intelligence. In April 2022, the White House denied media reports that Japan had been invited to join and transform the agreement into a JAUKUS format. However, there is no smoke without fire — in November 2022, Western analysts again started talking seriously about the prospects for Tokyo to enter the treaty, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.

Russian-Chinese relations are today more than ever a popular topic of discussion in the expert community and political circles. As a rule, these discussions come down to the prospects for the formation of a military-political alliance aimed at confronting the US and its satellites, writes Andrey Gubin, PhD, an Associate Professor of Political Science at the Far Eastern Federal University and an Associate Professor of the Northeast Asia Research Centre of Jilin University (PRC).

The visit of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island of Taiwan was undoubtedly an unpleasant event for Beijing. At the same time, the step was fully consistent with the spirit of modern US foreign policy.

Over the past three years, in light of the announcement by the Americans that China is a “revisionist state” and a “strategic competitor”, Beijing no longer hopes for a full-fledged restoration of dialogue with the Western countries, and therefore no longer stands on ceremony with the “democratic forces” and special Hong Kong autonomy, Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin writes.

The leadership of the PRC will not give up further attempts to spread influence on a global scale, and Chinese ships, aircraft, ground equipment, military personnel and civilian specialists will inevitably appear in the countries of East and South Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Oceania, as well as South and Central America. However, such activity is possible only as a result of bilateral negotiations, with the consent of the respective sovereign states, based on mutual interests and the principle of indivisible security, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.

With the onset of the sixth wave of technological innovation, the share of science-intensive production in the modern world economy is steadily growing. In Singapore, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan, the high-tech sector already contributes over 60% of GDP.

Given the exclusively anti-Chinese orientation of the idea of ​​the Indo-Pacific and the clear intentions of Washington to weaken Chinese influence, one should expect the US to intensify work with its Asian allies and partners, among which the Republic of Korea occupies an important place, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.

As the gradual but massive “pivot to the East” progresses, Russia is also turning to the South. If the strategic partnership with China can be recognised as a symbol of the eastern vector of the country’s foreign policy, then the south looks more diverse. After the beginning of the implementation by Washington of the course towards “creating a free and open Indo-Pacific region”, Moscow’s need for the additional strengthening of its influence in the Indian Ocean basin became more acute.

Given the strategic nature of relations between Moscow and Beijing, the parties should very carefully “remember the ravines” and agree on their plans for the development of transport routes, at least at the interdepartmental and intergovernmental levels, writes Andrey Gubin, Associate Professor of the Department of International Relations of the Eastern Institute of the Far Eastern Federal University (Vladivostok).