Valdai Club

Although the STC’s seizure of Aden is unlikely to result in the swift creation of an independent south Yemeni state modelled after the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY), the STC’s actions will have lasting geopolitical reverberations. As tensions between the STC and Hadi’s government show few signs of ebbing, Iran and the Houthis could emerge as the unintended beneficiaries of the STC’s triumph in Aden.  

On April 12, hundreds of thousands of protesters congregated in central Algiers to call for the departure of Algeria’s interim President Abdelkader Bensalah, Prime Minister Noureddine Bedoui, and other long-serving members of Algeria’s governing National Liberation Front (FLN) party. This unrest triggered open clashes between protesters and the Algerian security forces, which resulted in the arrest of over 200 demonstrators.

Although Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s departure is a seminal moment in Algeria’s recent history, the Algerian military’s growing assertiveness and ongoing unrest have raised the risk of prolonged political instability in Algeria. In this uncertain climate, Russia should uphold a policy of strategic non-alignment and discourage foreign interference that could spark a cascade of violence in North Africa.

Although UN diplomats have publicly expressed confidence in the longevity of the Stockholm ceasefire deal, conditions on the ground in Yemen point to a bleaker and more uncertain set of outcomes. A Russian-led parallel track mediation effort could complement the UN-backed negotiations by acting as an impartial forum for cross-factional dialogue and make Moscow an indispensable stakeholder in yet another major conflict in the Middle East.

While Russia’s decision to invite the Taliban to a multilateral forum raised eyebrows, as Moscow has officially designated the Taliban as a terrorist group, it reflects contemporary geopolitical realities in Afghanistan.