Valdai Club

The evolving contours of modern geopolitics is still in a state of flux, and there is wisdom in accepting the notion that the end result is perhaps indeterminable. The age of disruption is here, countries that thrive on disorder may do well in the short term, while nations who invest in stability may well define the future of globalisation and, indeed, the new world order, write Samir Saran and Aarshi Tirkey.

A shift from a global village of relatively deeply integrated communities to a form of “gated globalisation” based on political and economic familiarity appears inevitable. The digitisation of the global economy will only accelerate this process and, perhaps, technology tools may well aid in this.

Because of geopolitical changes, we are living the end of Western hegemony, and the West needs to cooperate with Russia in order to create a new system of confidence and security in Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron said at the meeting with the ambassadors. Macron is not necessarily dissenting with the official positions of Brussels or Washington — he is merely acknowledging a reality that both capitals are aware of. The global balance of power has irreversibly shifted and the transatlantic alliance must adapt to the realities of a multipolar world, Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation (New Delhi) asserts, responding to the questions asked by valdaiclub.com.

The Belt and Road Initiative and the “free and open” Indo-Pacific are competing initiatives. However, the real choice will be made by developing states, who are currently leveraging both initiatives to obtain better deals. It’s not inconceivable that in the long term, some multilateral arrangement will accommodate both initiatives.

Although BJP is the winner in this election, Modi is the victor: it is his soaring popularity, reminiscent of the popularity of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, that unleashed a massive wave of support. The BJP rode that wave to retain power. It was a single issue election. That issue was Modi. Nothing else mattered.

As Russia reconsiders itself as an Asian power, it has a unique role to play in the region, believes Samir Saran, President of the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation. In an interview with valdaiclub.com he shared his view of the emerging Asia-centric world order and Russia’s place in it.

While the new Indo-Pacific construct continues to grab headlines, India's recent diplomatic orientation points to a renewed appreciation of what American strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski called the world’s “decisive geopolitical chessboard”: Eurasia. In order to grasp the significance of this strategic space, it is useful to compare it with the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific.