Valdai Club

The center of gravity of international politics and economy is changing. Asia overcame Europe and North America as the top continent in term of economy. The economic vitality of Asia has attracted the attention of the whole world, and the security problems in Asia have become particularly prominent. The security issue in Asia involves two levels. At the level of the international system, there are structural contradictions between Rising China and the United States.

As a strategic conception, the Indo-Pacific strategy is perceived with certain difference by its major participants, including the U.S., India, Japan, Australia and ASEAN states. That is to say, under the common term of Indo-Pacific strategy, these states see it differently; their priorities and goals are not quite the same; and their attitudes and approaches are differentiated.

Till recently, discussions on the Asia Pacific covered the region between Southeast Asia and the US west coast. India was not included. APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation), which was created in 1989, still does not include India. India was not an original participant in Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in 1996. It was admitted only in 2006.

In 2017, the share of Asia-Pacific in arms exports increased even more – up to 45%, which is apparently due to the growth of shipments under big contracts with China. There were also reports that last year India accounted for 16% of all Russian weapons export orders, and the order portfolio amounted $4 billion.

Platforms such as the Asian Regional Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club are vital to kick-start conversations that could help shape the direction of policies, writes Senator Dato’ Marzuki Yahya, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Malaysia. It is through platforms like this that policies and initiatives have been conceived and articulated.

Chinese geoeconomics is making a great leap forward to adjust to rapid technological developments and a changing international distribution of power. The world is entering a new industrial revolution that further decouples the relationship between capital and labour, which incentivises Beijing to abandon its reliance on low-wage competitiveness and instead take the lead in developing high-tech strategic industries with its digital Silk Road.

The APEC summit held in November 2018 was a clear example of the destructive influence of the US-China confrontation on the regional development prospects. The dispute over the joint communiqué reflected the depth of divergence between Washington and Beijing. The United States demanded that the participants strongly condemn China for “dishonest” trade. China wanted the forum to speak out against protectionism and unilateralist policies – that would amount to unequivocal criticism of the United States.

If current growth rates continue for another decade or so, China will outpace the US by the end of the 2020s, and the Asia Pacific Region will be able to steer world economic development and dictate the global political agenda.

Although comparing the Russian-Chinese agreement under discussion with the TPP pact is misguided, such an agreement can lay a solid foundation for deeper bilateral trade and economic relations. The current international situation, characterized by sanctions imposed on Russia by a number of Western countries and the US-China trade war, makes Russia and China equally interested in intensifying cooperation.