Valdai Club

For quite a long time now, an opinion has been forming in scientific, expert and political circles about the increasing importance of a certain range of countries, which goes by different names: “developing”, “the Global South”, and “the rest”. The term “Global Majority” introduced in the first year of the Special Military Operation (SVO) by Russian experts seems to be quite suitable, writes Ivan Safranchuk for the 21st Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club.

The Americans left, but faith in their myths about the prospects for economic development and expectations of corresponding projects from foreigners have remained. In terms of belief in these American myths, the Taliban is no different from the leaders of the previous pro-American government. Moreover, the Taliban tends to ask their regional neighbours for the implementation of American myths, Ivan Safranchuk writes.

There are global challenges in the world, but there are no universal answers. We are entering a new historical era — the world is materially connected, and in this sense, global, but ideologically polymorphic and non-universal. Global institutions are not effective enough, but national governments, especially small and medium-sized states, cannot do everything themselves. This only increases interest in regional cooperation, writes Valdai Club expert Ivan Safranchuk.

A collision of interests is always part of any integration process, growing more dramatic and multidimensional the more comprehensive an integration endeavour becomes. This is particularly clear from the record of the most advanced integration project in history, the European Union, which saw periods of ‘eurosclerosis’, direct sabotage by member countries (e.g. a six-month boycott of the European Commission in 1965–1966 by France), and the failures of the constitutional referendum in the Netherlands and France in May 2005. The main fork in the road for Eurasian integration today is the lack of convenient ‘integration scales’: a deeper integration implies more heated conflicts, and it becomes more difficult to gauge the effects of integration decision-making. However, the main advantage of the existing situation is that it is natural.

Apparently the circumstances for the preparation of Plan B, “Deng Xiaoping’s Option,” came together over the past two years. Kazakhstan’s authorities have prepared well for the transition period. They have created many formal legislative and informal political “safeguards” to ensure the stability of state mechanisms after Nursultan Nazarbayev’s departure from government affairs. However, there is a problem with this approach.

A new political era has begun in Uzbekistan. Despite predictions in some media outlets, the country entered it without popular unrest or provocations, literally in mournful silence. The situation in the republic remains stable, at least for now. Ivan Safranchuk, associate professor of the Department of Global Political Processes of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy told valdaiclub.com what awaits Uzbekistan in the near future.

The general situation in Afghanistan has been deteriorating during the last few years. The year 2015 saw several record low points at once.