Valdai Club

Overall, the fall of the Berlin wall is seen positively by both East and West Germans to the same extent. What is missing, however, is a common narrative of what Germany is all about. The historical experiences of East and West Germany have not combined to form a foundation for a new, inclusive German identity, as opposed to the concept of “Germany plus the East,” writes Valdai Club expert Reinhard Krumm

The news compass of the Western world, the New York Times, usually writes its headlines in a moderate way. But in the fall of 1989 almost every day the letters were in huge bold print, because the news was not only very important, it was sensational. Why? Because the partition of Europe was coming to an end, day by day, culminating with the fall of the Berlin Wall––the most important symbol of all, because it had divided not only one city, one country, one continent, but the entire world.

The summit meeting in Germany was more about the EU-Russia relations as a whole rather than the Russia-Germany ties. The initiative is not Germany’s separate move. Especially Berlin is very much interested in a normalization of the relationship with Russia, but everything is done in coordination with the European Union.

Relations between the US and its European allies reached a new low: the trade war with the EU, Donald Trump’ criticism of NATO allies in the context of military expenditure, and his discontent with the Nord Stream-2 project added fuel to the fire.

There are no grand deals on trade or security issues on the horizon in international politics at the moment. It is more about managing the status quo and solving acute crises. This was precisely the task of the German chancellor Angela Merkel when she visited US president Donald Trump in Washington last week.

The future of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) depends on the coalition with Christian Democrats. But it is no less important for the political future of Chancellor Angela Merkel. The strengthening of the Alternative for Germany extreme right party is unprofitable for both SPD and CDU/CSU, so it pushes them to participate in the government coalition.

According to polls, about 47% of German citizens are in favor to hold new elections. However, if they were held today, we would not see big changes, Valdai Club experts say.

We can expect some changes in foreign policy, in particular, regarding Russia. But this is very difficult to predict, because the Chancellor Merkel keeps the leading course.

New US sanctions against Russia irritate the EU, as they in fact represent interference with the European energy policy, Valdai Club experts Reinhard Krumm and Gerhard Mangott say. But don’t expect counter-measures anytime soon: as long as European companies do not feel the real impact of US sanctions, the European Commission will not publicly announce any retaliation.

For German politics, it is very important now to let Russia know that the current status quo is the best option. Including Ukraine, despite the complexity of the situation there. So far it will not be better: there is no such energy, no idea to develop some other plan, another approach.