The US recognition of Jerusalem will have little effect outside of the immediate aftermath, according to Gershon Baskin, founder and co-director of IPCRI, the Israel Palestine Center for Research and Information. Baskin told valdaiclub.com that in the longer term, a solution is needed to the conflict, which can come either from US initiative or new leadership in both Israel and Palestine.
There is no peace process and there has not been one for four years, so it is not going to have an immediate effect on anything that is going on. However, if the Trump administration presented a peace plan to the Israelis and the Palestinians tomorrow that had backing from the Saudis, the Egyptians and the Jordanians, then the US would be a player. Because there are no negotiations going on now between Israel and Palestine, the Trump statement on Jerusalem has no impact on the peace process, because there is none.
Trump’s statement does not change anything on the ground. It recognizes a reality that exists, Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and although no country has recognized it as such, they are all playing a game. All countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel give their letters of accreditation to the president of Israel in Jerusalem, they come to the opening session of the parliament three times a year in Jerusalem, they meet with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Jerusalem, when they’re invited to meet with the Prime Minister, they meet in Jerusalem. It is a kind of a game.
What the Trump statement did not say is “United Jerusalem” and what he did say is that the issue of Jerusalem’s future boundaries and issues of sovereignty are to be negotiated between the parties. One thing that was also mentioned by Trump that wasn’t really caught by anyone was that he basically recognized Haram esh-Sharif, al-Aqsa, what he also called the Temple Mount, as a place for Muslim prayer, while he said the Jews pray at the Western Wall.
Surface Tensions
The question now is whether this statement, this change of American policy, which is really against what the whole world has implemented, will lead to a round of violence on the ground. The answer to that we will know in the next few days. I think there will be confrontations over the next couple of days and the question is whether or not that will be contained, or if it will spill over into a spite of violence, death and destruction, which I hope not.
It is clear that the whole world is condemning this, the EU, Russia, the League of Arab States, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and everyone else will condemn it. The question is whether the condemnation changes anything in reality, and the answer is no. Do the Palestinians have an option? Not really, they will come to negotiations again, perhaps when there are different leaders, when Netanyahu is not there, when Abbas is not there. Right now, there is no chance of an agreement, so the question is whether the potential violence can be contained, and it should be because nothing really changed.
New Paradigms Are Needed
This will not have an impact on the broader Middle East. This issue does not concern events in Yemen, Syria, Iraq or Iran. It does not affect anything else in the Middle East, such as Daesh or the Sunni-Shia conflict; the Middle East is in enough turmoil. There will be demonstrations in Amman, Cairo, the Iranians will probably stage a big demonstration for al-Quds, but other than that, it does not impact anything else in the region.
There will not be a peace process unless there is a genuine American initiative on the table or until there is a change of leadership in Israel and Palestine. What is important for the Palestinians is to complete their reconciliation process, to hold new elections, to elect a new leadership. It is also important for the Israelis to get rid of Netanyahu and elect a new leader. These things are going to happen. Abbas is old, he is in the 12th year of a four-year term, and the reconciliation process is moving forward. Netanyahu is deep in criminal investigations and will probably be indicted and forced to resign, so these processes are moving forward. In addition, if there are political changes or if there is a serious American effort, then maybe we can talk about a peace process, right now it is just empty words.
