Asia and Eurasia
On the Current Geopolitical Situation in Eurasia: A View from Tajikistan

In 2022, the modern system of international relations was optimised and began to function in the format of a tripolar world. The start of Russia's special operation in one of the countries of Eastern Europe completed the stage of the formation of a tripolar world with three gravitational centres of world politics - Russia, China and the United States.

In our opinion, it is the tripolar world that can shift the world economy and politics towards a qualitatively new development track and lend long-term stability to international relations, as well as flexibility and manoeuvrability. The new configuration of the world system will provide most countries throughout the world with a choice between three alternative coordinates of cooperation in the system of international relations.

Over the past decades, the desire of post-Soviet Russia, neo-communist China and a number of other major powers, such as India, Brazil and Iran to form a stable multipolar world with a multi-coloured palette of political cultures and practices, has faced sharp opposition and aggressive policy from the United States, which in the international arena has been guided exclusively by American unilateralism.

 In this context, the current Russian special operation in Eastern Europe opens up a new era in international relations, since, in our opinion, Russia has finally established itself as one of the poles of world politics and economics.

In the 30 years that have followed the collapse of the USSR, the Western countries have cultivated in the CIS zone, especially in Central Asia, various movements, organisations and ideologies which are anti-Russian in nature.

The transmission of this Russophobia and the cultivation of "colour revolutions" in the post-Soviet space over the past decades have always been controlled from a single coordinating centre in the countries of Eastern Europe. As the modern history of the post-Soviet countries shows, for these purposes the secret services of the West did not eschew contacts with neo-Nazi groups, religious extremist and even terrorist movements, consisting of immigrants from the CIS. These neo-Nazis, ethnic nationalists and religious extremists were and remain the main tools through which the Western countries are trying to influence the countries of the post-Soviet space, which seek to pursue independent foreign and domestic policies in accordance with their national interests.

Asia and Eurasia
Central Asia and Crisis in Europe
Timofei Bordachev
In terms of Russian foreign relations, the countries of Central Asia remain the most stable in the former USSR. There is no state or association for which the fight against Russian interests would be a central foreign policy strategy. Potential challenges and threats to stability are primarily related to internal factors, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

Central Asia today remains the object of destructive actions, both by Western intelligence services and their allies from the countries of the Middle East. In their arsenal are such tools as broadcasting the ideology of jihad and religious and political extremism, support for religiously motivated terrorist groups and religious extremist movements, the demonization of the political leadership,  accusations of Islamophobia, discrediting the secular image, manipulating the religious feelings of believers, etc.

With its actions, the West, for example, pursues three main goals in the Central Asian region:
  • to force the countries of the region to abandon their orientation towards Russia and, in general, to distance themselves from Moscow;
  • hinder and frustrate the implementation of the Chinese Belt and Road initiative, in which Central Asia is assigned a key role;
  • through threats and sanctions, completely reorient the countries of the region towards the West, and thereby completely subjugate their domestic politics and economies.
However, in the Central Asian region, the West has not succeeded in its destructive anti-Russian activities. The following factors have contributed to the preservation of Russia's influence in the region:

  • the presence of a still strong and pro-Russian scientific, technical and creative intelligentsia, political and economic elites, and stable scientific and cultural ties;
  • the presence of stable economic and financial ties, the focus of large and medium-sized enterprises of the Central Asian countries toward the Russian economic space;
  • established communications and military-technical cooperation between defence departments;
  • access of the able-bodied population to the labour market in Russia;
  • youth access, through quotas, to the education system in Russia;
  • the high interest of the population of Central Asia in the Russian language and Russian culture;
  • shared experience of living together in the USSR, as well as holidays and commemorations (i.e. Victory Day).
All these factors serve as a basis for long-term cooperation between Russia and the countries of Central Asia, both now and in the future. In addition, such organisations as the CSTO and the EAEU have also played a positive role in strengthening cooperation between the countries of the post-Soviet space and served as a reliable barrier to the destructive actions of the West in Eurasia. Today, it is already becoming clear that the world is entering a new Cold War period, and Western sanctions that are directed at Russia are automatically directed at all of Russia's allies in the CIS. This situation may persist for the next decade. Therefore, today the EAEU will play an important role in mitigating the consequences of Western economic sanctions in the post-Soviet space. However, in the context of events related to Russia's special operation in Eastern Europe and taking into account the new geo-economic and geopolitical realities in the world, the EAEU needs to optimise some of the principles and mechanisms of its functioning.

The security and prosperity of all of Eurasia, which consists of many pragmatic military-political, economic and cultural-historical alliances, has always depended on Russia.
In my opinion, Russia also has all the tools to perform the role of the gravitational centre of one of the three poles of the modern world:
  • the CSTO is a military-political instrument;
  • the EAEU is an economic instrument;
  • Eurasianism is a political, cultural and ideological instrument.
Meanwhile, ensuring security in Eurasia, especially in Central Eurasia, should become a common task for Russia and the states of Central Asia, which implies the close coordination and interaction of our countries within the framework of  the CSTO, the CIS and the SCO.
Thus, we can state that Russia is aimed at maintaining a lasting peace and ensuring socio-political stability throughout Eurasia. Therefore,  constructive and progressive forces in Tajikistan have fully supported and will continue to support our Russian partners in this matter.

Opening and First Session of the Valdai Discussion Club 2nd Central Asian Conference
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.