Valdai Club

2018

The Future of War

Andrey Sushentsov

Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club; Dean of the School of International Relations at MGIMO University

The technological advancement alters the nature of war. The conflict between great powers is no longer an unlike scenario, since it is possible to win a war with less resources and without irreparable damage. The world is on the verge of a new era when the cutting-edge military technologies have not been tested on the battlefield, but have already been adopted by the leading powers. How will the conflict of tomorrow look like? Will the mechanism of deterrence be as effective as it is? What impact will it have on military alliances and diplomacy? Will the new non-proliferation regime emerge in regard to new technologies? For the great powers, the war is very precarious scenario, but still potential one.

Reports

The Future of War

The political antagonisms of the modern world have reached a degree that is indeed alarming. No less destabilizing than the lowered pain threshold that used to guard against the use of force or wars between the states – is the visible imbalance between the advancing technological warfare capabilities and the lack of practical experience in using these technologies.

Maxim Suchkov, Sim Tack

The Future of NATO: Trade-Offs and Possible Scenarios

Ever since the Alliance was formed, its image has been subject to many distortions and contradictions. Some of these myths originate from NATO itself as it claimed to deliver security and stability not only to its members but also globally. In reality though, it is above all an instrument for furthering various and sometimes competing interests of its participants in military and political domains.

Igor Istomin, Irina Bolgova

Valdai Papers

Battle Robots Rivalry and the Future of War

Unmanned military systems – or ‘military robots’ – are becoming more commonplace among the rising number of armies around the world and are used with increasing frequency in combat. Leading powers, their challengers as well as their non-state combat opponents have begun to design, test, and field numerous unmanned systems.

Why We Must Prohibit Cyberattacks on Nuclear Systems: The Case for Pre-Emptive US–Russia Arms Control

Almost 35 years ago, US President Ronald Reagan settled down in the White House to watch the latest Hollywood blockbuster WarGames as part of his regular Sunday film night. The film, starring a young Matthew Broderick, depicted a teenage computer hacker accidentally breaking into top-secret Pentagon supercomputers that controlled US nuclear weapons.

The Singapore Summit and the Failure of Donald Trump’s Diplomacy

It seemed before the Singapore summit, - the meeting of the leaders of the US and North Korea, which was drawing attention of the whole international community while being prepared, that Donald Trump’s “blackmail diplomacy” proved its effectiveness.

Great Power Competition in 21st Century

With the end of transition period, great power competition comes back to shape the international system. China and Russia have posed a challenge to the US hegemony. What is behind this challenge?