Valdai Club

The 11th Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club: The World Order: New Rules or No Rules? was held in Sochi on October 22-24. More than one hundred experts from 25 countries focused on whether the global community will develop ground rules for the world politics or whether it will be a game without any rules where everyone fend for themselves.

The first day of the 11th meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club entitled The World Order: New Rules or No Rules? was busy with events and discussions. The agenda included an opening session, a panel discussion on economic issues, a special meeting on the Middle East crisis, a meeting with First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office Vyacheslav Volodin, and a presentation of books written by Valdai Club contributors.

The opening session entitled The Limits of Governability, or Systemic Failure provided the basis for subsequent discussions and highlighted the most painful issues in contemporary international relations. The speakers included Andrei Bystritsky, session moderator, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for the Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club; Igor Ivanov, President of the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs; Yaroslav Kuzminov, Rector of the National Research University – Higher School of Economics; Anatoly Torkunov, Rector of MGIMO University; politician Thierry Mariani, French MP, deputy chairman of the Union for a Popular Movement; Masahiro Akiyama, President of the Tokyo Foundation, a nonprofit think tank; Ivan Krastev, Board Chairman and Program Director for Political Research, Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria; and Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman, Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Editor-in-Chief, Russia in Global Affairs magazine.

The panelists agreed that the world order is in crisis, but were divided on the causes of and solutions to this problem. Most of them pointed to the issue of responsibility, or rather irresponsible attitudes of the main global players, who have failed to become the guarantors of global stability and security. The current crises are largely a result of their irresponsible policies.

They also discussed other factors that are undermining global stability, including rivalries over resources, the failure of the globalization idea, demographic risks and challenges, and migration, as well as countries’ internal developments. Many countries are dealing with power crisis and growing mistrust in the local authorities. Governments have been attempting to deal with these issues by pursuing a more active foreign policy, which often leads to short-sighted and ill-considered decisions.

The dangers of tactical versus strategic thinking were discussed at the session entitled Cooperation vs. Competition in Interdependence, which logically focused on the anti-Russian sanctions. The majority of participants agreed that the Western countries’ sanctions against Russia would boomerang back on them. Moreover, it is impossible to estimate the potentially negative effects of the sanctions on the countries that have initiated them and on the global economy. In particular, the speakers expressed apprehension that a decrease in Russia’s dependence on the global financial system could provoke a response that could even include cyber-attacks on the system.

One of the speakers said that although sanctions are counterproductive, they are also the only available Western tool that can have a deterrent effect on Russia, which cannot be bombed like Libya, for obvious reasons.

Despite the delicate nature of this issue, the discussion was held in a constructive spirit. The panelists also discussed other issues such as the interdependence of the economy and politics, the hidden dangers of globalization and the Monroe Doctrine.

A special session was held to discuss the crisis in the Middle East. Although this problem has come to a head in view of the spread of Islamic fundamentalism in the region, this has not changed the main problems affecting it. They are the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran’s nuclear program, and the role of Western powers in the region, primarily in the events that have happened there in the past few years. The majority of experts agreed that the Middle East is and will remain the biggest international problem for some time.

The Middle East is a region where international law is regularly violated by all parties to conflicts, which makes these violations a global problem. The future of the world order depends to a large extent on the world’s ability or inability to settle crises in the Middle East. Furthermore, a new and serious influence could appear in the region – China, which has direct interests there.

A meeting with the First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, Vyacheslav Volodin, showed that important foreign policy issues have not diminished the participants’ interest in Russia’s domestic policy. The experts were especially concerned about the specifics of Russian democracy, the future development vector of Russia’s domestic policy, and the reasons behind the Russian population’s unprecedented support for President Putin.

The first day of the 11th meeting of the Valdai Club ended with a book presentation by Angela Stent, Director, Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies and Professor of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University; Piotr Dutkiewicz, Director, Center for Governance and Public Policy at Carleton University, Ottawa; Richard Sakwa, Head of the School of Politics and International Relations, Professor of Russian and European Politics at the University of Kent at Canterbury; Nikolai Zlobin, President and Founder of the Center on Global Interests in Washington, D.C.; and Mikhail Delyagin, Director and Founder of the Moscow-based Institute of Globalization Studies.

One of the books presented at the meeting, edited by Piotr Dutkiewicz and Richard Sakwa, is the first book published by the Valdai Club, which is therefore the copyright holder. This is certainly a major step in the club’s development as an influential international think tank.

Like day one, the second day was quite eventful. Experts discussed the rise and fall of world powers, problems of global leadership, and the Ukrainian crisis. There were also meetings with Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov and Presidential Chief-of-Staff

There were several main concepts pervading the discussions, including the idea that the world was in a state of chaos, making it absolutely impossible to predict where the developments would head and how the world powers’ roles would evolve. Globalization, the main post-cold-war trend, has placed a multidirectional influence on world development and affected the destinies of various states in different ways. Putatively, the level of interdependence at the global level will soon decline, leaving the field open to new regional frameworks.

The current instability can be expressed in more specific terms: Apart from other factors, we can clearly see a power crisis and an eclipse of the global leadership idea. This fundamental problem underpins the majority of modern conflicts.

There were many multi-aspect debates on the global role of the US. Some concentrated on what they called its slow but irreversible economic decline, loss of moral leadership, and soft power inefficiency, while others asserted the opposite. However, it is obvious that the US is still the focus of political debates and therefore the focus of the world system as a whole.

Unsurprisingly, America’s role came under discussion at a special session dedicated to the Ukraine crisis. According to many speakers, it is Washington that holds the key to conflict settlement. On the whole, the experts feel pessimistic, believing that a conflict freeze is the most realistic, albeit not the most desirable, scenario in the short term.

Issues related to the Ukrainian crisis and related sanctions against Russia prevailed during meetings with Sergey Ivanov and Sergey Lavrov. But other aspects of Russia’s international standing and internal development are also of concern, including Vladimir Putin’s role in Russia and the unanimity that dominates Russian political circles, Russia’s preparations for upcoming changes in the world, the rise of nationalism in the country, the role of the opposition, global threats from the Russian perspective, the Middle East situation, possible crises in the post-Soviet space, and cooperation with China.

The final day of the conference opened with a meeting with First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Igor Shuvalov, which was held in the Q&A format. Experts expressed a lively interest in Russia's economic development strategy under the sanctions, as well as existing infrastructure projects and their financing. Both Western and Russian participants focused their attention on current issues related to the Ukrainian crisis, such as the possibility of cooperation between Russia and the West on the recovery of the Ukrainian economy, the impact of the crisis on the position of the leading Russian oil and gas companies and the weakening of the ruble. Meanwhile the questions from Asian participants revealed their interest in the future prospects of cooperation in the eastern direction. Thus, experts from China and Japan touched upon long-term development of the Far East and the project of the transport network linking Europe and Asia.

After the meeting with Mr. Shuvalov experts gathered for the final discussion. The latest session was meant to wrap up the discussion held over the previous two days, to sum up its results and to provide an answer to the key question of the meeting: can a peaceful agreement on the world order be achieved? As session moderator Fyodor Lukyanov noted early on during the discussion, “Based on what we heard over the past few days, a formula of consent is nowhere in sight so far.” The experts faced the difficult task of finding possible solutions to the global uncertainty and instability we are now experiencing.

The scenarios proposed by the participants were generally pessimistic. In the view of many, the Ukraine crisis has permanently destroyed the status quo established in the wake of the Cold War. The world has moved beyond the point of no return, and a new order is needed.

Some participants suggested that the world is not on the verge of war, it is already at war. An economic and ideological war, and perhaps even open war, is now being waged, albeit by proxy. International law is ignored worldwide, rendering all current institutions of global governance illegitimate.

Therefore, it’s imperative to think less about founding a new world order and a new system of global governance than about new rules of war that could prevent the world from sliding into chaos. One of the proposed measures is an updated policy of deterrence, which the world abandoned after the Cold War. The new deterrence must be rooted in maximum involvement of all players and comprehensive information exchange.

Maximum information transparency is the key to global stability. Often, the fact that we live in a virtual reality created by the media is what causes crises and impedes progress.

The main event of the third day of the 11th meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi was the closing session with President Vladimir Putin. It was a very important event considering the strained political situation. Many participants said before the meeting that it was the only opportunity for them to find out what was really happening in Russian politics and to learn about the Russian leaders’ plans for the country’s future.

The closing session began with addresses from President of Russia Vladimir Putin, former Prime Minister of France Dominique de Villepin and former Federal Chancellor of Austria, Wolfgang Schüssel. Their remarks were mostly in line with the discussions held on the previous days. All of them admitted that the world had entered a period of instability and uncertainty, and pointed to the ambiguous role of the West in the creation and erosion of the world order, and highlighted the need to take emergency measures to prevent serious clashes and conflicts.

Dominique de Villepin said: “A serious dialogue is possible, provided it is based on respect for existing differences and the principles of the countries’ independence and equality.”

Actually, the idea that all parties should respect the opinions and interests of others dominated the closing session. Wolfgang Schüssel also pointed to the importance of an inclusive dialogue.

Vladimir Putin, who sharply criticized the West in his opening remarks, also expressed confidence that the situation could be normalized. He said, “I am certain that if there is a will, we can restore the effectiveness of the international and regional institutions system. We do not even need to build anything new from scratch; this is not a “greenfield,” especially since the institutions created after World War II are quite universal and can be given modern substance, adequate to manage the current situation.”

The second part of the closing session was especially interesting for the experts, because it was held in the Q&A format. They asked many questions, most of them on ways to settle the crisis in Ukraine. President Putin clearly indicated in his answers that he believes in the possibility of a peaceful settlement of the conflict and that it was in Russia’s interests to preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

The experts asked questions that were prompted by the First Deputy Chief of Staff of the President’s Executive Office, Vyacheslav Volodin’s phrase, “Without Putin, there is no Russia,” which provoked heated discussions in the Russian and foreign media. Replying to that question, Putin said: “There is no disputing whatsoever that Russia is my life” adding that “Russia can of course get by without people like me, though.”

Other questions concerned the present and future of US-Russian relations, the modernization of Russia, problems in its economic development, and cooperation with its Eastern partners. Unfortunately, the experts could not ask all their questions due to the lack of time.

In general, the atmosphere at Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the Russian and Western experts was calm and open, despite the current political tensions and the Russia-West confrontation. The Russian president said that it corresponded to the spirit of the Valdai Club. He also expressed hope that “the spirit of Valdai would continue – the free and open atmosphere and opportunity to express very different and candid opinions.”

The 11th Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club was supported by Federal Agency for Press and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation and the partners of the Club: Alfa-Banking Group, MegaFon, Russian Helicopters, Sberbank of Russia, Severstal, Sistema, State Corporation “Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs (Vnesheconombank)”, VTB Group.