Valdai Club

On November 16, the Valdai Club held an online discussion, titled "Regional and International Consequences of the Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis", timed to coincide with the release of the new Valdai Club report, "Breaking the Status Quo and the International Dimension of the Crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh".

Moderator Andrey Sushentsov, Programme director of the Valdai Club, noted in his opening remarks the unexpected escalation of the old conflict and the large scale of its international consequences.

Speaking about the Russian reaction to the conflict, Sergei Markedonov, leading researcher at the Institute for International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), denied the popular belief that Russia was acting passively and slowly, stressing that the absence of public statements does not mean the absence of work on unofficial dialogue. Russia could not unambiguously choose one of the sides and had to act carefully and in a balanced manner, taking into account the interests of Turkey. On the whole, as a result, Russia took on many problems, but managed to strengthen the military component of its presence in the Caucasus.

Kerim Has,  an expert in international and Russian-Turkish relations relayed how the policy of President Erdogan to support Azerbaijan is regarded in Turkey. Starting with regrets in connection with the unwillingness of the conflicting parties to pursue mutual concessions and peaceful coexistence, he said that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict had become a locomotive for the growth of nationalism and militant sentiments in Turkey itself, and also helped the Turkish leadership consolidate its power inside the country. At the same time, according to the expert, the national interests of Turkey and the interests of the Turkish elite do not coincide in every respect. Erdogan is presumably unhappy with the results, as he’d hoped to get more from this conflict. The Turkish side had wanted to pursue final victory, but Aliyev did not want to spoil the international image of Azerbaijan and relations with Moscow. Now Nagorno-Karabakh is divided into two parts, with Russia playing a key role in the Armenian part. Thus, Turkey broke the status quo, but a new situation was created on Russia’s terms.

Erdogan also wanted to send his peacekeepers, but Russia does not want a Turkish military presence in its proverbial backyard at the level that it was introduced in Syria or Libya. On the other hand, the economic and military-technical aspects of the conflict are especially important for Turkey, contributing to the advancement of its defence technologies.

In addition, the participants discussed the likelihood of a final settlement of the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh, the prospects of the Minsk Group and the danger of such local conflicts escalating into a major war. The video recording of the discussion can be watched on our website.