The report assesses the ongoing transformation of the Middle East and offers a forecast of future developments. The authors focus on Islam and its values as a political force in the Middle East and North Africa. The key issue is the opposition between ideology and pragmatism. The authors seek to answer the following question: “Can ideology and pragmatism coexist, or are they bound to lead to conflict and upheaval, like we are witnessing today?”
On August 21, the Valdai International Discussion Club presented the analytical report “Islam in Politics: Ideology or Pragmatism?”, authored by leading Russian experts on the Middle East following the fourth conference of the club’s Middle East Dialogue, held in Marrakesh on May 14-15, 2013.
The presentation was attended by the authors of the report: Vitaly Naumkin , Director, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); RAS Corresponding Member; Ambassador Alexander Aksenyonok , Ph.D. in Law; Boris Dolgov, Senior Research Fellow, RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, Ph.D. in History; Vasily Kuznetsov, Research Fellow, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences; Director, Centre for Transformation of Political Systems and Political Cultures, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Ph.D. in History; Ambassador Veniamin Popov , Director, Civilizations’ Partnership Centre, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.
The report assesses the ongoing transformation of the Middle East and offers a forecast of future developments. The authors focus on Islam and its values as a political force in the Middle East and North Africa. The key issue is the opposition between ideology and pragmatism. The authors seek to answer the following question: “Can ideology and pragmatism coexist, or are they bound to lead to conflict and upheaval, like we are witnessing today?”
Interestingly, the authors of the report made their conclusions following debates at the Valdai conference in Morocco, attended by representatives of different Arab movements and parties, both secular and liberal and Islamist and radical, including the Muslim Brotherhood, HAMAS, HEZBOLLAH and Salafite parties.
As Vitaly Naumkin said at the presentation, the examples of Egypt and Syria show that the Arab world has split. Current events in Egypt are strongly influencing the regional balance of forces and “changing the architecture of relations between major political forces and states.”
Naumkin believes the expert community should determine how the ongoing transformation is influencing the domestic development of other states in the region and the consequences for outside forces – the United States, the West in general and Russia. It should also analyze the changes taking place within the ranks of the Islamists, which used to be clearly divided into moderates, Salafis and Jihadists.
Alexander Aksenyonok believes that the current events in Egypt raise doubts about the supremacy of pragmatism. He observed that Egyptian society has traditionally been more secular than in other Arab countries, and that the conflict in Egypt is one between worldviews, or “the idea of the Egyptians’ national identity.” In other worlds, is the country defined by its religious or civil character? Aksenyonok stressed that the Egyptian coup “is not the return of democracy or an infringement on it because democracy did not exist in Egypt.” He added, “The second Egyptian revolution (or counterrevolution or military coup) was inevitable due to the forced Islamization of society.”
According to Vasily Kuznetsov, Tunisia is more stable than Egypt but it is still facing fundamental problems like an economic crisis and an extremely polarized society. “There is no unity in Tunisia – there are ideologically-motivated and pragmatically-oriented groups but none of them knows how to get the country out of the crisis,” he said. Kuznetsov thinks there are several scenarios for Tunisia’s future, including going down the path of Egypt.
The authors emphasized the importance of Russia’s policy in the region. Relying on its diplomatic traditions, Russia is pursuing a restrained, sound policy that has every chance of consolidating peace in the region. Veniamin Popov believes that “it is necessary to understand that right now the region’s political forces do not want to engage in dialogue, but there is simply no other way to understand each other’s positions.”
In analyzing Russia’s policy, the authors discuss the role of Russian Muslims and the importance of working actively with Russia’s Muslim community, which could act as “a bridge in relations with the Arab world.”
The experts agree that the region will remain turbulent. Even minor changes in the balance of forces in Syria, Lebanon, Egypt and Iraq will exert influence on other countries. Popov thinks “the pendulum is likely to stop swinging first in Tunisia,” and that Tunisia could, in turn, influence other countries in the region.
The authors conclude that despite current events, “political Islam is present as a force in the Middle East.” It is essential to continue studying political Islam and working with representatives of various movements with a view to achieving peace in the region. Aksenyonok believes faithful Islam should prevail over political Islam, but its supporters are on the defensive both in Russia and abroad.
