Valdai Club

Peace is in everyone’s interest. Socrates recalled, two thousand years ago, that no one is totally right or totally wrong. To achieve peace and put an end to conflicts, the reasons and limitations of all contenders must be recognised. It is this secular choice that paves the way for diplomacy.

The next European elections will see the struggle for power increase, and the way in which European government is conceived will change. It is realistic to foresee a transition phase, in which the certainties of the past and the new visions being established will coexist, Dario Velo writes.

Without a major pan-European peace agreement, the enlargement of the European Union could lead to war, and this would be suicide, in an era of nuclear weapons, for everyone and first and foremost for Europe, Dario Velo writes.

Machiavelli’s lesson remains valid: the new order has lukewarm defenders as those who will benefit from it remain uncertain, while the old order has staunch defenders among those who already derive certain benefits from it, Dario Velo writes.

Suddenly inflation is back, forcing investors to wake up from a dream they thought would last much longer. In the near future, this awakening risks leading to the bursting of speculative bubbles. Bubbles in real estate, money and finance, produced by speculation on commodities can explode when the ample liquidity runs out drastically, writes Valdai Club expert Dario Velo.

The possibility of creating a democratic monetary order as part of the European experience was greeted with scepticism at the time of the creation of the European Monetary Union. An equal scepticism is bound to welcome the project to establish a new international monetary order. The most dangerous alternative is to surrender to sovereignty and to war to resolve the tensions between the most powerful states and their vassals: monetary, financial and political disorder, writes Valdai Club expert Dario Velo.

Britain dreams of still being in the nineteenth century. Today it is experiencing an economic and commercial crisis, the pound is weakening, it is unable to attract international capital to support development, and it has been hit by high inflation and increasingly serious social tensions. More and more, its alliance with the United States is beginning to show the characteristics of a vassalage, writes Dario Velo, a Professor at Pavia University.

At this stage of history’s development, a version of the Treaty of Westphalia shaped on today’s reality is needed, with international institutions capable of governing a shared order, writes Valdai Club expert Dario Velo.

The enlargement of the European Union to all the Balkan countries offers an opportunity. Without a great plan, enlargement could prove to be a failure and fuel tensions, including military ones, writes Dario Velo, Full Professor of Pavia University.

In recent decades, the international order has undergone profound changes. The leadership of the U.S.A. and Russia, affirmed since the Second World War, has been joined with increasing importance by new states: China, the nations of the European Union, India and other emerging countries.