For Russia, Crimea is more than just a territory. It is not for land that Russia is putting all her prestige at stake. This situation is about wounded national pride, history, identity, national phobias, a new Russian nationalism, past relations with the “West” full of real and perceived injuries, and Western hypocrisy.
For Russia, Crimea is more than just a territory (even if, at 26,000 square kilometers, it is almost the size of West Virginia). It is not for land that Russia is putting all her prestige at stake. This situation is about wounded national pride, history, identity, national phobias, a new Russian nationalism, past relations with the “West” full of real and perceived injuries, and Western hypocrisy: Crimea’s future is her past.
All international efforts must now be focused not on the day-to-day management of the situation on the ground, but on an agreement between Russia, the EU, and the US on
how
to talk to each other and by an international conference on Ukraine. Extraordinary times require a different approach from the international community and a change of focus from questions of what is “ purely legal” and who is “purely legitimate” to what is right and what is wrong in securing the vital long-term interests of Ukraine, Russia and the EU that – when I write those words – are still reconcilable. This will be a tough task. Probably, all will feel that they are giving up more than they are willing to give, but the alternative is even more disturbing.
We are a few days from a point of no return. In a few days Crimea will become a
de facto
independent country, Ukraine will ask the West for any help available; the West will impose sanctions, harming Russia while Russia will retaliate – sacrificing many Russian oligarch’s fortunes placed in western banks and real estate as a small collateral damage for re-gaining her strategic independence. A set of dual-sanctions (“Western”-to-Russia and Russian-to-Ukraine/West) will inevitably reverberate throughout global markets, making them even less stable than today. In the middle of all of this will be Ukraine, unstable and possibly with pockets of violence in Crimea where more radical Crimean Tatars may resist separation from Ukraine. Without access to the Russian market - no matter how much the West will try to help - Ukraine may soon become one of region’s most impoverished countries, living – at least in the short run - on the dole of international charity.
It is quite possible that Ukraine will suffer the most as a result of the very events that were supposed to bring her a new, better beginning. This nation does not deserve such a pessimistic future.
What would be a potential scenario in case no meaningful conversation among key parties will start soon? Most probably a new global geo-strategic shift will start to unfold very soon thereafter Crimea’s separation, with the EU moving closer to North America (by fast concluding a giant EU – North America free trade zone) and Russia falling into the friendly arms of China. This in turn will make the Afghanistan withdrawal more complicated, Iran negotiations even more important (since the “West” will try to open the tap of Iranian oil to harm Russia’s crucial revenues) but less likely to be concluded, and the Middle East peace process stalled as the main priorities will have moved to a different geographical location. Possible outcomes will – most probably – include the weakening of international governance and international law to the point of a full scale international anarchy as current mechanisms of global governance via G-8/G-20 and the UN might be clogged by Russia and the West not wanting to talk to each other.
Ukraine is and always will be in between the EU and Russia. It is not ready to soon become part of the EU, no matter how some politicians see it, and neither is it part of Russia.
We have just a few days to avoid catastrophe. We need all hands on deck to make parties to talk meaningfully to each other soon.
