On September 4, the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club hosted a discussion titled “Geopolitical Transformations of Latin America: Challenges and Prospects for Russia's Economic Relations with the Countries of the Region”. The discussion moderator, Ivan Timofeev, noted that many in Russia are somewhat pessimistic about economic ties with Latin America, because of long distances, complicated logistics, payment difficulties and sanctions risks that Latin American partners are often not ready to take. Nevertheless, people on both sides are showing a healthy adventurism, looking for new opportunities and new economic niches.
Alexander Stepanov, Programme Director of the Academy of Political Sciences and Senior Researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ILA RAS), identified China’s emergence on the global stage as the main factor having a transformative impact on Latin American countries. The systemic, complex and progressive growth of China’s presence in the region worries the United States and clearly affects its Latin American policy. It is not only about market conquest, but also about technological circuit, telecommunications relations, military-technical cooperation, and soft power. Infrastructure and logistics projects are also extremely significant. Latin America is very poorly connected internally – communications are mostly carried out by sea. Accordingly, whoever controls the ports determines logistical opportunities. However, China has gone further, starting to connect its regional partners by land routes. According to Stepanov, these trends open up opportunities for Russian companies. “China may allow us to enter markets that the US would never allow us to enter. Certain competitive advantages may emerge here,” he believes.
Fabiano Mielniczuk, Professor of the Department of Political Science at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, presented a view from Brazil. Speaking about China’s role, he mentioned the Brazil-China negotiations on the Belt and Road Initiative. In the end, Brasilia decided not to participate in the project. This was partly due to the desire not to join someone else’s initiative and to build an equal partnership, although US pressure also had an impact. Already now China is Brazil’s main trading partner, ahead of the United States, and the country would like to equalize these relations, reducing dependence. Analyzing Brazil’s policy in the context of the upcoming elections, the situation in neighbouring Venezuela and the destabilizing activities of the US, Mielniczuk stressed the need to stabilize the situation in the region with reliance on BRICS as a platform for solving regional problems, cooperation between countries and building a multipolar world. He also pointed to the need to develop relations with Russia, making them more complementary, with an emphasis on investment and technological cooperation.
Irina Shkolyar, Director of International Cooperation at the Russian Foreign Trade Academy, noted that many Russian companies are now seeking to develop Latin American markets. “Latin America is far from us geographically, but mentally very close to us,” she believes. This, as well as the presence of a large number of compatriots in many countries of the region, often plays into the hands of Russian business. However, the issue of information is important. Latin America is more or less familiar with Russian culture, sports, and space programmes, but has little awareness of business opportunities. Moreover, the agenda of regional media in this aspect looks rather negative and needs to be changed. In addition, the problem of training personnel who understand Latin American specifics and have the competencies that businesses need is still relevant.
