On June 27, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “NATO in The Hague: a crisis of development or the beginning of collapse?” Moderator Timofei Bordachev noted that the meeting of the leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation in the Netherlands had generated a lot of information noise - opinions, statements and assessments, often ironic; he invited the participants to discuss what, despite this, could be extracted from its results as serious, interesting and important for the development of European and global security.
Vladislav Maslennikov, Director of the Department of European Problems of the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted that the summit was held according to a shortened programme and in fact the efforts of the organizers and participants were aimed mainly at ensuring a comfortable stay for Donald Trump at the event. Under pressure from his administration, a decision was made to increase the defence spending of the countries in the bloc to 5 percent of GDP by 2035 (including military aid to Ukraine and investments in its military-industrial complex), with 3.5 percent going directly to military spending, and 1.5 percent to improving infrastructure, developing the defence industry, and so on. Maslennikov emphasized that these measures do not enjoy much support in NATO, but its participants agreed to them, apparently, without intending to fully fulfil their obligations. The need to increase defence spending in the alliance is associated with the “Russian threat” that has long been peddled in Europe, and it seems that this intimidation is the only way to force Europeans, relaxed by long years of inaction under the patronage of the United States, to take responsibility for their security. At the same time, there is no unity in the ranks of the alliance in approaches to Russia, but there are no signs of a change in the anti-Russian agenda now. NATO continues to actively prepare for a conflict, and this has already become entrenched at the ideological level. "Much will depend on how our relations with the United States develop, but we expect that it will not be easy to reverse the anti-Russian attitudes deeply rooted in NATO and the European Union," the diplomat said.
Olivier Roqueplo, an analyst from the French think tank CONFLITS, examined the positions of key European powers in NATO. He noted that France, which is experiencing an intellectual, cultural, and political crisis, is losing its influence; it is increasingly moving away from modern reality, and is turning into a provincial state. Meanwhile, according to Roqueplo, NATO is currently dominated by Great Britain, which is pushing the alliance toward a confrontational policy and expansion throughout the world, not just in Europe. The analyst called this a de facto continuation of the historical British colonial policy. He believes that Germany's rearmament is a separate factor changing the balance of power in Europe. “This is an existential threat to the security and independence of most European countries, including Russia and France,” he explained. “Germany has always been at the centre of most European crises.”
Alexander Aleshin,
senior researcher at the International Organisations and Global Political Regulation Sector at IMEMO RAS, argues that transatlantic relations are key to NATO’s development. He said that their so-called crisis shouldn’t be exaggerated. As during the Cold War, NATO continues to fulfil its original task, formulated by the alliance’s first Secretary General, Lord Ismay: to keep the United States inside, Russia outside, and Germany under surveillance. After the Cold War, the EU achieved growth and prosperity by relying on cheap Russian energy, low defence spending that allowed it to invest the freed-up funds in development, European integration that created convenient supranational institutions, and European corporations reaping the enormous benefits of cheap Chinese labour. However, with the rise of China, the share of Western countries in the global economy began to decrease, and the United States found itself in a position of a hegemon in decline. It is now trying to strengthen its technological base, as well as its economic and geopolitical power at the expense of European countries. This is precisely why anti-Russian policy is aimed at breaking European ties with Russia and creating a sense among Europeans that the borders are threatened. This allows the Americans to strengthen and maintain political leadership, which is demonstrated by the decisions of the summit in The Hague, which fully correspond to the interests of the United States, Aleshin concluded.
