Think Tank
Geopolitics after the Pandemic: A View from Tokyo

On February 25-27, the second Tokyo Global Dialogue Forum, organised by the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), took place online. It was decided that the event, which first took place in December 2019, would be held regularly. Its prestige was underscored by the presence of the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan.

Although only a little over a year has passed since the first forum, Japanese foreign policy has undergone a truly tectonic shift, which was reflected in the speeches of officials. The most striking change has been the rise in confrontational rhetoric directed against China. In his speech, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi stressed, among other things,  the inadmissibility of Beijing's imposition of its vision on other players, as well as the attempts to take advantage of the new opportunities that have opened up to China thanks to the pandemic. It is noteworthy that two years ago, the greatest concern among Japanese experts was, along with the rise of China, the contradictory foreign policy of the United States. It is obvious that the arrival of the Biden administration, which has proclaimed the "return of America" ​​to world affairs, is perceived in Japan as a step towards the strengthening of the unity of the Western bloc. Mr. Motegi especially pointed out that the Japanese vision of a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific Region" is shared not only by the ‘Quad’ members (Australia, India, the USA, Japan), but also by the European states and ASEAN countries.

The “green” agenda also took priority during the discussions. Following in the footsteps of the European Union, Japan has declared a transition to carbon neutrality by 2050. Tokyo has high hopes for the development and export of green technologies, which should become a new stimulus for the development of the economy.

One of the regional sessions was devoted to Russia, the moderator of which, like last time, was a long-time friend of the Valdai Club: Professor Nobuo Shimotomai. Perhaps the most striking difference from the discussions of past years on issues of bilateral relations was the emergence of a "green" dimension. Hopes were expressed that the widespread transition to a "green" economy could become a new driver of cooperation - in particular, in the production of hydrogen fuel.