Historically, the European Union had two models of leadership. The first was the leadership of the European Commission. The second one was the Franco-German tandem. None of them functions today. Now the EU is dominated by Germany. This is facilitated by the vacuum of leadership potential in the Union's institutions and the weakness of national leaders in the Old World.
On October 3, the Valdai Discussion Club presented its Valdai Paper #54, titled "The EU's Crises and its Future".
It is crucial to study not only crises, which threaten Russia, but also the successes and failures of such unique partnership association as the European Union. Professor Mark Entin, Russian Ambassador to Luxembourg (2012-2016), noted that the European Union is a unique experiment that Russia has much to learn from, especially as it is itself on the way to building its own supranational integration association.
Systemization of crises facing the European Union may be different, but it is necessary for a more in-depth look at current processes and trends. Tatyana Romanova, Associate Professor at St. Petersburg State University, Jean Monnet Chair, proposed five basic interrelated categories:
• Crisis of leadership and solidarity expressed in departure from the old management models and Germanization of the central power;
• Economic crisis, consisting of many components, different for each of the member states of the Union;
• Crisis of values and regulatory leadership, causing violation of the balance of collective and individual rights of EU citizens;
• Immigration and terrorism crisis;
• Crisis of legitimacy, expressed in the dilemma between the de facto legality and recognition of the event as legitimate by citizens.
According to Bojan Krstulovic, editor-in-chief of Moskauer Deutsche Zeitung newspaper, a serious challenge is the image problem, which deprives Brussels of the authority as the central decision-making body. The reason for this is attribution of national policy mistakes to the European Commission and the European Union. Thus, problems with migration flows, caused primarily by the member states’ non-compliance with all-union agreements are often seen as a failure of Brussels to take active decisions.
Mark Entin referred to a statement by Jean-Claude Juncker, who said that the root of the problems facing Europe lies in the growth of distrust for the authorities within the European Union, which prevents efficient work and centralized decision-making.
The discussion also involved the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, as well as potential challenges for the European Union in case of its implementation. According to the participants, the regional partnership format leads to the conclusion that the WTO is not suitable enough to discuss such decisions. However, to enter the TTIP the EU will need to go through a complex process of persuading society to believe in the necessity and profitability of this project and overcoming strong public rejection.
Participants also discussed possibilities for a future partnership between Russia and the European Union, the creation of a pan-European army, energy security in Europe, and the possibility of diversification of the European economy in conditions of low oil and gas prices.
Overall, the experts were positive about the European Union’s capability to overcome all its current challenges, as well as to return to partnership with Russia. Victor Mizin, leading research fellow at the Institute of International Studies of MGIMO University, concluded: "Crisis is evidence of healthy development of an organism."
