Valdai Club

On December 9, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Russia-USA: What Are the Limits of Confrontation?” Discussion moderator Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, stressed that at the moment, the level of Russian-American relations is unprecedentedly low; there are sharp contradictions between the two countries on many issues, but dialogue is still maintained in a number of areas. “The question is to what extent the remaining ‘windows’ for dialogue can at least partially reverse the existing negative trends, especially given that the confrontation with Russia is enshrined in new US conceptual documents,” he concluded.

Sergei Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, agreed that Russian-American relations are in an extremely difficult state. He noted that Washington's confrontational and anti-Russian course is becoming more acute. According to him, the US administration is deliberately dragging out the conflict in Ukraine, considering it as one of the stages of an all-out hybrid war against Russia, which is doctrinally declared an enemy and adversary. In the context of a bipartisan Russophobic consensus, one cannot count on glimmers of common sense among the American elite, the diplomat believes. Washington continues to escalate anti-Russian restrictions, while the Biden administration is ready to neglect even the interests of American business. Statements about the possibility of lifting sanctions are very vague and emphasise the need to comply with unrealistic demands from Washington. According to Ryabkov, the US authorities have actually brought relations between the countries to the point of no return.

“After the start of the special military operation, our warning apparently reached the Americans that the problem of Ukraine is of fundamental importance to us and we cannot put up with a situation that, without being resolved diplomatically, found itself on the battlefield,” Ryabkov emphasised. He added that Russia is still convinced that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should not be unleashed and that any armed conflict between nuclear powers is unacceptable. Therefore, Moscow is watching with concern as accusations emerge that it is preparing some kind of provocation using WMD. The Deputy Minister recalled the principle of peaceful coexistence that worked during the Cold War and pointed out that, given the special responsibility of Russia and the United States, the two nuclear superpowers, for the fate of the world, there is hope for the restoration of normality between the countries. However, given Washington's hostile actions in Ukraine, business as usual won't work.

Prokhor Tebin, the author of the Valdai Paper on the New US National Security Strategy, stressed that the American documents on military-political strategy are extremely consistent and, changing depending on the current situation, retain their basic principles. In his opinion, the National Security Strategies adopted by the Trump and Biden administrations have more in common than they differ, but serious differences from the 2010 Strategy are noticeable. Tebin noted that recently Americans have ceased to be embarrassed by the term "great power confrontation" and have come to realize the need to increase competition. He pointed out that the new National Security Strategy is more ideologically charged. The same phenomena and concepts receive different colours in it, depending on who they are attributed to.

Speaking about Russian-American relations, Tebin stressed that for the Americans, Russia is not of great interest outside of the nuclear issue. In the first half of the 1990s, the Americans realized the inevitability of the coming confrontation with China, but at the same time they were afraid of unnecessarily straining relations with it. Against this background, the “Russian threat” has become a convenient cover for advancing military programmes and mobilizing NATO allies. In the coming years, no matter who wins the presidential election, the US position on Russia is unlikely to change dramatically, Tebin said. “It is necessary to talk with the Americans, but it is very difficult now and will not be easy in the future,” he said, pointing out that Washington may need some kind of dialogue with Russia when the current bifurcation point is passed.