Valdai Club

The most ominous threat might arise from the continuing intense rivalry in cyberspace, which could spin out of control, despite the ongoing cybersecurity dialogue. Ransomware attacks aside, the complexity and ambiguities of cyberspace, and the rapid advances in cyber tools and weaponry, make the temptation to seek unilateral advantage in the cyber realm almost irresistible, writes Valdai Club expert Thomas Graham.

An alliance of democracies is not a utopian dream. But it will take time to construct one, and success is far from certain, writes Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations.

The world is approaching an historical inflection point. The system of global governance that was founded in the years after the end of the Second World War is straining under the accumulating weight of a shifting balance of power, a crisis of legitimacy, and rapid technological advance. Whether it will revitalize itself, give way to a new system more in tune with these emerging realities, or collapse into worldwide disorder is the central question of international affairs today.

The new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted one critical global development:  the rise of China. It is the only major economy that will grow this year. The IMF forecasts growth at 1.9 percent, a sharp drop from the 6-plus percent China is used to, but well above the -4.3 percent forecast for the United States, -8.3 percent for the Eurozone, -5.3 percent for Japan,  -10.3 percent for India, and -4.1 percent for Russia.

The lack of a genuine international community and true global leaders underscores the absence of a universal world order, writes Valdai Club expert Thomas Graham. The American effort to expand the liberal international order, which structured post-World War II relations in the West, to the entire world after the end of the Cold War has ended in failure.

As Russia pursues its turn to the East, it needs to nurture a diversity of positive relationships that will give it the room to maneuver it needs to reduce the risk of devastating conflict while advancing its own interests.

What makes the current situation especially worrisome is that the economic problems are not driven primarily by economic factors.  Rather, politics has taken center stage in two dangerous ways.  First, political dysfunction in leading countries in Europe is exacerbating economic difficulties, and populism is making it politically more risky to manage economies effectively.