Valdai Club

While significant individual differences are observed between individual forecasters and questions within the identified categories, some consistent trends are evident. These trends can be used to formulate preliminary forecasting predictions. Further work involves not only re-examining and refining the identified patterns but also seeking more substantiated explanations for their causes.

In light of Trump’s frantic attempts to reduce dependence on China in this area, he should have been courting Pretoria in every possible way for cooperation. Igor Istomin discusses why the United States is being openly confrontational instead.

The growing bitterness of Western countries towards Russia is consistent with the logic of ‘preventive war’ in the initiation of armed conflicts. Rather than linking interstate confrontations with aggressive opportunism, this model views escalation as a product of fears about the future. The conviction that the situation will worsen over time encourages states to take increasingly more adventurous steps, even using force.Throughout history, major wars, as a rule, became the product of precisely this preventive logic – the desire to strike in advance of an expected weakening, writes Igor Istomin.

Aside from tactical and stylistic nuances, a change of administrations does little to modify the course of the United States, which is clearly visible in the example of recent electoral cycles. Behind the parade of ambitions, eschatological rhetoric and bright performances that accompany presidential campaigns in the United States, there is an unpleasant truth – the revision of American politics is determined by a change in circumstances, not personalities, Igor Istomin writes.

The apparent convergence in the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo triangle creates challenges for the new logistics routes currently being built with much difficulty, including through the Sea of Japan, writes Valdai Club expert Igor Istomin.

Today, as in past epochs, the search for an international political balance is accompanied by intense confrontation between major powers and military blocs. Not surprisingly, mutual hostility is emerging as the dominant mode in relations between Russia and the West.

TextThose who expect revelations from the new Strategic Concept will be disappointed. Experts will be able to discuss the meaning of individual paragraphs, and compare them with previous versions. Nevertheless, the further course of NATO will be determined by the development of the international situation, and not by the provisions that the authors of the much-touted document forced out, writes Valdai Club expert Igor Istomin.

Mutual accusations in revisionism have become an essential element of rising rivalry between the United States, Russia, and China. At the beginning of the 21st century states associate revisionist policies with the challenges to global governance rather than territorial expansion. Global governance developed into a multi-level network of agreements, interstate fora, and transnational bureaucracies. It confers a range of rights and obligations to states, regulates access to crucial markets, and contributes to international stability.

The on-going disorder does not allow observers to be distracted from the political struggle in the United States. Interest is caused not only by the development of events directly in the country, but also by what consequences the divided America brings to the world. Meanwhile, in the light of historical experience and current trends, it seems that the greatest significance for the international order will not be the aggravated contradictions between political forces, but spontaneously emerging points of convergence, writes Valdai Club expert Igor Istomin.

One cannot count on the revival of the “spirit of Helsinki” today. No matter how skilful Russian diplomacy is, the conditions for restructuring the European order on the principles of cooperation are currently not visible. Accordingly, the OSCE is also unable to ensure the institutionalisation of Russia’s participation in decision-making on the regional agenda, to which it is striving, Valdai Club expert Igor Istomin argues.