Global Governance
Why We Need to Look Closely at the US-European Relations

Until the countries of the West had serious grounds for “divorce,” their position in world affairs could not be more flexible. Now, the gradual destruction of the unity between the Western countries can finally become the basis for involving Russia and China in the process of forming a new international order on those conditions that will be satisfactory in relation to their basic interests and values, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

Relations between the United States and the leading states of Europe are developing in a new direction; the current dynamic is poised to yield a more stable international order in the future. The main reason is the gradual erosion of transatlantic unity, which 30 years ago became a major obstacle to the creation of such an order after the Cold War. This process appears to be objective and can hardly be reversed by even the most energetic efforts of the American or European governments.

There is an understanding that difficulties in relations between these allies are of a large-scale nature. The new US administration’s most important area of related activity was the proclamation of a restoration of relations with Washington’s European allies, which were significantly undermined at the symbolic and practical levels during the Republican administration. To a large extent, this was the focus of Joseph Biden’s recent statements, as well as his practical steps. For example, it served as tacit consent for Germany to complete the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which was strongly opposed by the last US president.

In general, US policy towards Europe now looks like a strategy of appeasement and support for the Europeans instead of a set of tough demands.

However, there is reason to believe that these relations can no longer be restored to the level of amity that existed during the Cold War or even after its conclusion. This gradually growing rift between Europe and the United States is the only guarantee of success in creating a new international order. This split pertains to the military-political arena, economics, and values, and can lead to the end of the existence of a ‘community’ of Western countries as a relatively integral grouping of states within the greater international community. 

In the military-political field, the United States and Europe no longer share common threats. European states are seriously concerned about their internal problems, which threaten the stability of national political systems. The penetration of radical religious ideas and the strengthening of right-wing sentiments in society, as well as the collapse of social systems were aggravated during the coronavirus pandemic. These, together with the exhaustion of the welfare state model that emerged after World War II, are the problems that European leaders are most concerned about now. They are, however, practically unconcerned about China’s growing global influence or Russia’s increased geopolitical independence. The latter can, of course, be annoying, since it now deprives the Europeans of the main instrument of influence over their powerful eastern neighbour.

But Russia by itself does not threaten the existence of European political systems, as it did during the Cold War. China is generally very far away, and Europe’s modern ambitions are not so expansive that their implementation would require fierce competition with Beijing. Most importantly, the political and economic systems of China and Russia do not represent an alternative to Europe, but rather complement it, creating conditions for the gradual formation of stable and mutually beneficial relations.

The current aggravation of relations between Europe and Russia is merely emblematic; the moment the two parties are getting used to the new order defining their relationship, which should inevitably replace the rules and customs that arose during the period when Russia was weak and Europe was expanding.

In the economic sphere, ties are constantly strengthening between Europe and those whom the United States cannot but regard as opponents. The picture of trade relations is changing — in 2020 China became the second most important sales market for Germany after the United States, it has ranked first in total trade turnover for several years. Before the new year, and a few weeks before Joe Biden took office, the German government secured a special investment agreement between the European Union and China — an agreement that many called a blow to the transatlantic solidarity. Western European governments will, of course, try to limit Chinese influence in areas they consider to be vital to their interests. But otherwise, China and Europe are striving for a good balance in economic relations.

With respect to ideology, the United States is increasingly scaring away allies, as it creates and develops revolutionary ideologies that potentially threaten any state except the USA itself. In France, the government of President Macron has announced an investigation into destructive American influence in the social sciences. The gradual movement of much of the European political establishment to the right will further deepen the ideological divisions between the key NATO allies. The United States has entered a period of complex internal transformation, and its problems are less and less European in their culture and ethnicity.

Overall, we can well expect the US and Europe to drift more and more away from each other. Now the most important uniting factor of their relationship is participation in the NATO Collective Security and Defence institutions. However, over time, the importance of these institutions will decrease, as the practical need for the organisation disappears. The G7, which includes the United States and the three leading EU powers in addition to Japan, cannot fully fulfil the function of such a common and necessary institution. Even taking into account the fact that the military-political situation in Eastern Europe will remain unstable in the coming years, the threat of war there stems from the likely escalation of a private clash, and is not related to the large-scale plans of the parties in relation to each other. The fact that NATO is increasingly becoming a platform for the promotion of high-profile but ultimately meaningless initiatives, and testifies to the gradual withering away of this organisation.

The fundamental problem of the post-Cold War international order was that a group of influential powers — the United States and its most important allies — retained the internal unity that arose during the period of confrontation with a common enemy: the USSR. At the heart of this unity was America’s decisive military superiority and its ability to act as a distributor of goods on a global scale in such a way that its closest allies were the main recipients. This impeded any ability of states that were victorious in the Cold War to take into account the interests and values of other powers in their policies.

Global Governance
Russia and Europe: The Long-Awaited Finale
Timofei Bordachev
Since September 2020, a new stage of Russian policy begins in relation to its formerly most important neighbour and still the most significant foreign economic partner. Russia no longer believes that Europe is capable of playing the role of an independent and somewhat reliable partner in international affairs, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.
Opinions


Now both factors are gradually eroding and this is quite encouraging. Anyone who studies international relations has a particular inclination to refer to the Vienna Order as the ideal international order. Indeed, due to the balance of power and mutual recognition of legitimacy, this order turned out to be the most just and stable. But, as with the case of every international order, it is much more important not why it works, but for what fundamental reasons it should function. It is the existence of objective reasons that makes it possible for states to show the will to reach an agreement.

The Vienna order arose as a result of the destruction of the unity of the coalition of powers that defeated revolutionary France and sought to prevent the possibility that one of them would seek hegemony in Europe. Only the inability of Austria, Britain, Prussia and Russia to come to separate agreements among themselves led to the appearance of the Congress of Vienna in 1814-1815, which included France, with Talleyrand representing it. The condition for this was the certainty in the question of the borders of France and the inability of the victorious powers to agree without its participation.

Until the countries of the West had serious grounds for “divorce,” their position in world affairs could not be more flexible. Now, the gradual destruction of the unity between the Western countries can finally become the basis for involving Russia and China in the process of forming a new international order on those conditions that will be satisfactory in relation to their basic interests and values. Only under this condition is there a chance that such an order will be relatively fair, stable and lasting.

Global Governance
The New International Order
Timofei Bordachev
The return of international politics in a rather traditional form has inevitably been accompanied with a decrease in the importance and effectiveness of international institutions. The events of 2020 and the trends behind them have even compelled us to turn to the question of whether such institutions should exist as they are, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.
Opinions
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.