On 1 October 2017 92% of voters in Catalonia approved a referendum question that asked “Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?" However, only 43% of registered voters turned out, and it is likely that many if not most of those who did not vote were against independence. Polls taken before the referendum found that Catalans were almost evenly divided on independence, but that those who said they certainly would vote were much more favorable to the referendum. In any case, the Spanish national government refuses to recognize the results of the vote or even to negotiate with the Catalan regional government. The Prime Minister and his party, the Socialist opposition, and the king all oppose independence. The Spanish Constitutional court ruled that such a referendum was illegal and forbade it to proceed.
Opinion throughout Europe is mixed. Most national governments and major political parties assert that the issue is an internal matter for Spain. A few regional governments, no doubt eager to create a precedent for independence or autonomy within Europe, such as those of Scotland, Sardinia, and Flanders, called on Spain to respect Catalan’s desire for independence. Some leftist leaders and parties, most notably British Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, called for mediation and condemned police efforts to block the vote and the violence committed by the national police against Catalan voters and demonstrators.
Right-wing Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy certainly presented himself as a thug. Indeed, much of the impetus for independence comes from Catalans’ deep opposition to Rajoy’s policies and personality. Just as Americans in some states, such as California and New York, dream of creating a new nation separate from the America that elected and stills seems to support Trump, so do many Catalans see separation for Spain as a way of implementing policies that the right-wing Spanish majority opposes. The desire for Scottish independence also stems in large part from dismay at the long years of Conservative Party dominance in Britain. Conversely, Northern Irish who want to remain in Britain do so in part because they fear having to live under the repressive Catholic social policies favored (at least until recently) by voters in the Irish Republic.
Rajoy is a barrier to resolution of the conflict with Catalonia. As long as he remains in power, Catalans will be repulsed by their national government and continue to push for independence. Rajoy so far has been unwilling to negotiate greater autonomy for Catalonia. He has benefited politically from the conflict, whipping up nationalist fervor in the rest of Spain and thereby winning support from voters who otherwise don’t like Rajoy as a person or his policies. Thus, Rajoy is likely to remain in power for at least the medium-term, and when he does leave office another conservative probably will succeed him. Perhaps the next prime minister will be less offensive and be willing to negotiate greater autonomy for Catalonia, defusing the crisis.
However, even if Rajoy remains in office and deepens Catalans’ desires for separation from Spain, Catalonia will not become a separate country. Most crucially, no other European national government supports Catalan independence. No government wants to lose a part of its territory, not even in an amicable separation, and so they are unwilling to endorse independence elsewhere in Europe. We saw the violence with which the division and further division of Yugoslavia proceeded, and the decisive role of outside powers in finally determining new international borders. The split between the Czech Republic and Slovakia is unique in recent decades as a non-violent division.
Since the EU works on consensus, the veto by even a single member government (such as Spain) could block Catalonia’s entrance into the EU. Similarly, Britain could prevent Scotland from becoming a member of the EU. Unfortunately, for separatist Catalans and Scots (and others elsewhere in the EU) almost certainly many if not most or all EU members would vote against admitting Catalonia or Scotland since they would not want to establish a precedent that would make it easy for regions to separate from their national governments.
Thus, in the end, the EU will be decisive for the prospects of Catalan independence. Catalonia, like Scotland, expects that if they gain independence they still would be part of the EU, able to enjoy free trade and open borders with the other member states, and to use the euro. Those are all necessary requisites for creating viable states. Just as Britons now are slowly but surely learning that their economy will be decimated if they lose access to the EU, so too would a separate Catalonia find its economy shattered if it were isolated from the EU.
Rajoy thus is merely delaying Catalans rendezvous with reality. For now, he can be inaccurately seen as the main (perhaps the only) obstacle to independence. That pose, as I noted, helps him politically in the rest of Spain. But once Rajoy’s government career is over and a more amiable person becomes prime minister, Catalans will get the chance to focus on the actual steps needed to create a viable new nation. At that moment, the EU’s opposition to admitting breakaway parts of current members will be seen as the real and decisive block to independence.
Institutional arrangements like the EU become integral to the workings of economies, and the freedoms and benefits conferred by membership shape individuals’ plans for their lives. Despite the EU’s frustrations and occasional absurdities, most Europeans can’t prosper outside its borders. As long as the EU remains a union of national states, separation will be impossible for Catalonia or any other region with dreams of independence. Only if there is a fundamental restructuring of the EU itself, so that it becomes a true European government, to which the citizens of each component enjoy membership separate from their national governments, will it become possible to redraw or obliterate the national governments and borders that today so frustrate Catalans, Scots and many other Europeans.
