The leading Russian experts on the Middle East discussed the recent developments in the region during the presentation of the Valdai Club analytical report “Transformation in the Arab world and Russia's interests” held in Moscow on June, 8. The report summarizes and expands ideas and insights expressed by the participants of the third conference of the Valdai Club Middle East section that was held in Sochi on February 17-18.
The leading Russian experts on the Middle East discussed the recent developments in the region during the presentation of the Valdai Club analytical report “Transformation in the Arab world and Russia's interests” held in Moscow on June, 8. The report summarizes and expands ideas and insights expressed by the participants of the third conference of the Valdai Club Middle East section that was held in Sochi on February 17-18.
The report was presented by its authors: Prof. Vitaly Naumkin , Director, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); Corresponding Member, RAS; Amb. Alexander Aksenyonok , Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary; Member, Association of the Russian Diplomats and Prof. Irina Zvyagelskaya , Chief Research Fellow, Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS. Pavel Andreev , Executive Director for International Cooperation, RIA Novosti; Executive Director of the Valdai Club Foundation, moderated the discussion.
The Syrian conflict was one of the most hotly discussed issues both in Sochi in February and in Moscow in June. As noted during the presentation, “even the leading Western and Arab experts have only vague understanding of Russia’s motives and goals.”
The authors stated that the current major shift in the regional political and social landscape was affected, but not caused, by the external forces. As Prof. Naumkin said, Moscow and Beijing did not share the same enthusiasm as some of their Western partners. “The main goal of Russia’s diplomacy and the main policy that is pursued by Moscow in the Syrian issue is supporting Syria’s sovereignty and maintaining the regime of non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states,” Naumkin added.
The experts mentioned that the statement of U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon on the expiration of Assad’s legitimacy after massacres in Hula and Hama “is not fitting for such a high-level diplomat.” As the experts said, these events were not investigated properly and “any assessment of the situation would be premature.” Moreover, Amb. Aksenyonok and Prof. Naumkin shared the idea that this could be a provocation of anti-Assad radicals aimed at internationalization of the civil war in Syria.
As the experts agreed, “there are no alternatives to Kofi Annan’s mission”. The situation is not desperate enough to require international peacekeeping mission and the potential for peaceful talks is far from being exhausted. However, Prof. Zvyagelskaya said that in order to start a dialogue the opposition should present a positive program of changes and reforms, but, as the other discussants noted, the anti-Assad forces hope to repeat the “Libyan scenario” which will only escalate the violence. Moreover, the opposition will not be able to prevent national and religious conflicts if it comes to power. Thus, Prof. Zvyagelskaya added, new waves of refugees, mostly religious minorities including the Alawi and Christians will pour from Syria.
The Western position on the conflict also leaves much to be desired. Amb. Aksenyonok noted that on the one hand the West asks Russia to exert its pressure on Assad, but on the other hand, the West is not willing to exert any pressure on the opposition. Every actor understands that the “fair play” principle is applicable only in sport, but Russia wants to bring even a small part of “fair play” into the Syrian equation.
Answering a question whether it is true that Assad will step down without Russia’s support, Prof. Naumkin stressed that Russia supports Syrian sovereignty rather than Assad’s regime and underlined that without Russia’s firm and just position Assad would be ousted with foreign assistance. By the end of the discussion the experts said that however important the Syrian issue might be, Russia must not allow such secondary problems to spoil the greater agenda of Russia’s relations with the West.
The full text of the report can be downloaded in English, Russian or Arabic on the website of the Valdai Club.
