Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the Middle East has experienced a tumultuous and violent series of events, starting with the occupation of Iraq in 2003, followed by the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Terrorist organisations, at one point, gained control over significant territory in both nations, extending to the eastern border of Lebanon. Today, Lebanon, like Gaza and the West Bank before it, has fallen prey to Israeli aggression, resulting in widespread destruction. The ongoing hostilities threaten to ignite a large-scale conflict in the region that could extend from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, writes Amal Abou Zeid for the 21st Annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club.
Over the course of an entire month of aggression, the Israeli military has transformed vast areas of my country, Lebanon, into scorched earth. From the blessed lands of the south, where Jesus Christ turned water into wine, to the Bekaa Valley, historically known for its role in sustaining the Roman Empire, and to Beirut, the birthplace of the world's first legal code—no region or city within our small and unique nation has been spared from the devastation of bombing and violence.
Tens of thousands of homes have either been destroyed or severely damaged, along with thousands of factories and workshops; the aggressors have burned millions of trees and numerous fields. As of this writing, the death toll stands at no fewer than 3,200 martyrs, with over 13,000 individuals injured. The systematic displacement resulting from Israeli evacuation orders have resulted in more than 1.2 million people being displaced, marking the largest humanitarian crisis that Lebanon has faced since the 1982 invasion. According to official reports, at least 13 hospitals have ceased operations due to deliberate Israeli strikes, affecting areas from the south to the Bekaa Valley and the capital. Additionally, Israeli forces have targeted medical teams, resulting in the death of at least 130 paramedics and doctors. Furthermore, we must not overlook the press and media personnel who are facing military strikes without consideration for their role and work; thus far, the number of journalist martyrs has reached 11, with dozens more injured.
Israel has deployed the most advanced military technology to inflict maximum harm on the Lebanese population. While the ongoing genocidal campaign against Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank represents a tragedy that has profoundly shocked humanity, it unfolds amidst a clear silence from influential Western nations, which predominantly endorse what they refer to as "Israel's right to self-defence" without any acknowledgment of the rights of others. They have failed to condemn Israel's violations of those rights, despite their recognition by international charters, resolutions, and humanitarian laws, which affirm the right of individuals to defend themselves and resist the occupier by all possible means until their land is restored.
The UN Security Council, recognised as the highest international authority established after World War II to which countries are accountable, has repeatedly failed to impose a ceasefire despite having the capacity to draft five resolutions aimed at ceasing hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon, due to the division among the major powers. Consequently, these resolutions have remained mere words, as countries have avoided imposing significant sanctions on the State of Israel or its political and military decision-makers, who do not fear prosecution by the International Criminal Court, which itself is subject to Western pressure, thereby increasing the likelihood of the current war escalating.
In the past several weeks rather than pursuing a de-escalation of hostilities, Israel has attacked Iran and Iran has reserved the right to retaliate, which threatens to ignite widespread instability across our region, encompassing the Gulf and potentially extending to North Africa, with escalating tensions within and between multiple nations. The repercussions of such tensions could even reach the northern Mediterranean and southern Europe.
The Security Council's failure to enforce its resolutions and the sidelining of the United Nations and its organisations did not occur in isolation. These issues have been underscored by recent political provocations, including the Israeli delegate’s public shredding of the United Nations Charter in New York, threats to the life of UN Secretary-General António Guterres, restrictions on his entry into occupied Palestine, subsequent threats to the lives of UNIFIL personnel in southern Lebanon, and the deliberate killing of UNRWA employees. These actions reflect a longstanding pattern, dating back to the mid-20th century, marked by Israel’s consistent non-compliance with internationally endorsed resolutions—beginning with the resolution to partition Palestine and extending to subsequent resolutions, such as 425, 242, and 194, among many others—which Israel has refused to implement without being held accountable.
However, the Security Council also failed to prevent the war in Iraq, which was initiated when the United States pursued a unilateral military intervention. That war continues to have devastating effects on the Iraqi people and the region. Similarly, the Security Council failed to halt the Syrian conflict or facilitate a political settlement that could return over 10 million displaced Syrians to their homes, rebuild Syria, and lift the sanctions imposed upon it. Additionally, it was unable to prevent the intervention in Libya, a nation which now faces threats of division and enduring instability. As global attention is diverted, the conflict in Sudan has emerged, adding to the tragedies of the region, with millions suffering from the hardships and dangers of internal strife. Furthermore, the Security Council and international institutions have been unable to de-escalate tensions on the Ukrainian-Russian front or enforce agreements that might foster a political settlement preserving the rights of both parties. Instead, escalating hostilities and the proliferation of destabilising weaponry have raised the risk of an international catastrophe, potentially involving the use of weapons of mass destruction.
The current threat facing the Middle East, particularly Lebanon nowadays, carries significant implications for the outbreak of widespread chaos that jeopardises the very existence of the country, especially due to the Israeli aggression, the displacement crisis, and the risk of internal conflicts. This not only threatens Lebanon but also the entire Mediterranean region, undermining the diversity and unity of a region historically celebrated for these qualities, before it has fallen prey to the challenges posed by conspiracies and become entangled in global conflicts, from the Cold War to the active hostilities currently unfolding in various parts of the world.
The international powers have retreated into their own agendas. The United States remains preoccupied with its presidential elections, leaving Israel to act freely, often using American weaponry. The European nations are prioritising their confrontations with Iran at Lebanon’s expense. Regional powers have likewise failed to provide solutions to the ongoing conflicts, and regional communications remain insufficient to achieve a ceasefire. Notably, the Arab League has been unable to establish a unified Arab political stance in support of Lebanon and the Palestinians during the current conflict, while Turkey remains focused on its war against the Kurds. This also places the Arab League at risk of losing its role in defending Arab rights, particularly after the United Nations lost its role as a global governing body originally intended to manage balances and uphold human rights universally, irrespective of identity.
The current silence regarding the genocide against the Lebanese people, facilitated by advanced Western military technology and in violation of established rules of warfare, such as the Geneva Conventions and historical agreements, indirectly exposes all nations to a similar threat. Furthermore, the continuation and expansion of the conflict into the Gulf and the Mediterranean present significant risks to global trade, adding to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war. As a result, the world may confront heightened waves of inflation and financial instability, putting millions at risk of famine and social unrest, while threatening the economies of most countries with widespread repercussions.
Are there any solutions or positive prospects?
Despite this bleak situation, one cannot help but hold on to a glimmer of hope for the establishment of justice and stability in our region and across various areas of the world. Achieving just settlements in our region remains possible, but it necessitates considerable effort and international humanitarian solidarity. Israeli policy, particularly under the current far-right government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, has disregarded all existing agreements in Palestine and the West Bank by encroaching on land, displacing populations, constructing settlements, and undermining political solutions.
Stability in our region begins with Israel's recognition of the necessity of implementing the two-state solution, which originated with the UN resolution to partition Palestine and has been reiterated over the years following each conflict between Arabs and Israel. Despite this, Israel has continued to maintain control over the Golan Heights, occupy the Shebaa Farms, the Kfar Shuba Hills, and more than 70% of the West Bank, while currently occupying Gaza and parts of southern Lebanon instead of retreating to the borders established by the United Nations and accepted by Arab nations, particularly as outlined in the Beirut Peace Initiative of 2002.
The establishment of a Palestinian state is a fundamental condition for achieving stability in our region, along with the withdrawal from occupied Lebanese and Syrian territories, the cessation of violations and encroachments on the sovereignty of neighbouring countries, and respect for Palestinians' right to self-determination and statehood.
In Lebanon, the government has consistently declared its commitment to implementing Resolution 1701; however, the Israeli side continues to refuse compliance and occupy additional areas of Lebanese territory. Therefore, Israel must withdraw immediately from our land to allow the Lebanese army and UNIFIL forces to fulfil their responsibilities in implementing the international resolution, restoring stability in southern Lebanon, and completely halting the aggression, thereby facilitating the reestablishment of order in Lebanon, the election of a president, and the formation of a new national government.
Today, the focus is on the coordinated regional and international efforts in response to the increasing awareness of the dangers posed by the expansion of this conflict. In particular, attention is drawn to the concerted roles played by the Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar—as well as the reconciliations facilitated by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have received support from both Russia and even the United States. We must also acknowledge the proposal President Vladimir Putin put forward years ago to establish a framework that guarantees Gulf security, along with Turkey’s cooperation in these new paths. If regional efforts are unified, they can compel Israel and the international community to adopt a just settlement that fosters stability after decades of violent conflict.
In the midst of conflicts, diplomacy plays a crucial role in identifying common sentiments among peoples and shared interests among economies. Therefore, we reiterate our call to overcome all obstacles and embark on a diplomatic path that extinguishes the flames of war currently raging. This could spare lives and prevent substantial economic losses, which have already reached approximately $20 billion in Lebanon alone, according to preliminary estimates from the Lebanese Ministry of Economy. Our region has already paid a heavy price during the Cold War, and we hope to avoid incurring further costs today. The East is weary.